1611 Forecasting

Outlet words are copied from the Senate ratings table, not turned into points. The Economist’s “likely” and “very likely” are already rewritten there as lean and likely. A seat left off the table is blank, not safe. Polls are the Wikipedia average as of October 10, 2026.

Tilt 0–1.4
Lean 1.5–4.9
Likely 5.1–9.9
Very likely 10–14.9
Safe 15 or more

35 races, closest first. The same words are applied to the poll average. A margin of 5.0 is lean. 3 races pick the other party from at least one outlet. A bar in the cell is that disagreement. A toss-up is not marked.

Race	Poll average	1611 Projection	CookOct 6, 2026	DDHQOct 6, 2026	EconomistOct 6, 2026	FiftyPlusOneOct 6, 2026	FoxOct 6, 2026	IEOct 1, 2026	RCPOct 5, 2026	SabatoOct 6, 2026	SilverOct 3, 2026	Split TicketOct 6, 2026
Maine SenateTroy Jackson	D+2.0LEAN D	D+0.7TILT D	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D
Ohio Senate specialJon Husted	D+3.5LEAN D	R+0.7TILT R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D
Texas SenateKen Paxton	D+3.3LEAN D	R+1.0TILT R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D
Iowa SenateAshley Hinson	D+1.1TILT D	R+1.6LEAN R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tilt R	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup
Kansas SenateRoger Marshall	D+0.6TILT D	R+3.8LEAN R	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Tossup	Lean R	Likely R	Tossup	Lean R	Tossup	Lean R
Michigan SenateAbdul El-Sayed	D+3.6LEAN D	D+3.9LEAN D	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D
Nebraska SenatePete Ricketts	R+1.2TILT R	R+5.2LIKELY R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Tossup	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R
North Carolina SenateRoy Cooper	D+9.2LIKELY D	D+5.5LIKELY D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Safe D
Georgia SenateJon Ossoff	D+8.3LIKELY D	D+5.7LIKELY D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Solid D	Safe D
Alaska SenateDan S. Sullivan	D+2.4LEAN D	R+6.5LIKELY R	Tossup	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Lean D
South Carolina SenateDarline Graham	R+1.6LEAN R	R+7.7LIKELY R	Likely R	Lean R	Lean R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R
Montana SenateKurt Alme	R+22.7SAFE R	R+8.1LIKELY R	Solid R	Likely R	Safe R	Likely R	Solid R	Solid R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
New Hampshire SenateChris Pappas	D+5.9LIKELY D	D+9.8LIKELY D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Lean D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D
Florida Senate specialAshley Moody	R+6.1LIKELY R	R+11.0VERY LIKELY R	Solid R	Likely R	Lean R	Likely R	Solid R	Solid R	Lean R	Safe R	Likely R	Likely R
Minnesota SenatePeggy Flanagan	D+2.9LEAN D	D+11.0VERY LIKELY D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D	Tossup	Likely D	Likely D	Lean D
New Jersey SenateCory Booker	No average	D+12.4VERY LIKELY D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Mississippi SenateCindy Hyde-Smith	No average	R+13.0VERY LIKELY R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
Colorado SenateJohn Hickenlooper	No average	D+13.2VERY LIKELY D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Kentucky SenateAndy Barr	No average	R+13.7VERY LIKELY R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
New Mexico SenateBen Ray Luján	No average	D+14.9VERY LIKELY D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Likely D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Virginia SenateMark Warner	No average	D+15.2SAFE D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Illinois SenateJuliana Stratton	No average	D+15.9SAFE D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Oregon SenateJeff Merkley	No average	D+16.8SAFE D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Louisiana SenateJulia Letlow	R+5.8LIKELY RRace to the WH	R+16.9SAFE R	Solid R	Likely R	Likely R	Likely R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
Tennessee SenateBill Hagerty	No average	R+17.4SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
Delaware SenateChris Coons	No average	D+19.8SAFE D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
West Virginia SenateShelley Moore Capito	No average	R+20.0SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
Arkansas SenateTom Cotton	R+6.5LIKELY R	R+21.7SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
Rhode Island SenateJack Reed	No average	D+23.9SAFE D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Idaho SenateJim Risch	No average	R+24.1SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
South Dakota SenateMike Rounds	No average	R+24.5SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Likely R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Likely R
Alabama SenateBarry Moore	R+19.0SAFE RRace to the WH	R+25.3SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
Massachusetts SenateEd Markey	D+24.5SAFE D	D+25.5SAFE D	Solid D	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Solid D	Solid D	Solid D	Safe D	Solid D	Safe D
Oklahoma SenateKevin Hern	No average	R+27.6SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R
Wyoming SenateHarriet Hageman	No average	R+29.8SAFE R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Safe R	Solid R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Solid R	Safe R