U.S. Senate

Why this race matters

This is the 19th closest Senate race in the forecast, 13.7 points, out of 35.

35 Senate races are on the 2026 ballot in this forecast (15 Democratic leads, 20 Republican leads). Seats that are not on the ballot are not assigned, so this is not a 100-seat chamber.

No incumbent is on the ballot.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: R+19.7. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2022 R+23.6. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

The polling block for this race was omitted.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Jefferson County	DCharles Booker, DCharles Booker	D	D+31.5	65.0%	279,964
Fayette County	DCharles Booker, DCharles Booker	D	D+33.0	65.7%	113,822
Kenton County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+6.8	52.6%	64,031
Boone County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+22.3	60.4%	53,349
Warren County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+9.4	53.9%	45,018
Campbell County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+4.8	51.6%	38,243
Hardin County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+14.4	56.4%	38,051
Daviess County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+17.0	57.7%	37,265
Madison County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+16.0	57.2%	35,758
Bullitt County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+36.1	67.3%	34,193
Oldham County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+7.7	53.1%	30,234
McCracken County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+20.0	59.2%	25,286
Pulaski County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+50.3	74.4%	25,118
Scott County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+12.8	55.6%	23,563
Laurel County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+55.0	76.7%	22,076
Jessamine County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+20.9	59.7%	21,095
Franklin County	DCharles Booker, DCharles Booker	D	D+10.1	54.3%	20,386
Shelby County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+19.8	59.1%	19,483
Pike County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+50.5	74.5%	18,959
Nelson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+26.9	62.7%	18,081
Christian County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+18.7	58.6%	17,158
Boyd County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+23.6	61.0%	16,588
Hopkins County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+36.0	67.2%	16,256
Barren County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+37.9	68.2%	15,675
Henderson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+14.3	56.4%	15,584
Clark County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+20.4	59.4%	14,146
Marshall County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+41.8	70.1%	13,934
Greenup County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+35.6	67.0%	13,754
Calloway County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+23.0	60.8%	13,409
Graves County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+46.7	72.6%	13,204
Floyd County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+44.3	71.4%	12,391
Whitley County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+54.4	76.4%	11,935
Woodford County	DCharles Booker, DCharles Booker	D	D+0.6	49.5%	11,863
Boyle County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+14.1	56.3%	11,378
Meade County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+37.2	67.8%	11,178
Muhlenberg County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+39.5	69.0%	10,840
Knox County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+56.2	77.3%	10,416
Anderson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+34.2	66.3%	10,364
Montgomery County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+31.7	65.1%	10,149
Logan County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+40.1	69.3%	9,902
Taylor County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+41.8	70.1%	9,704
Grayson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+46.9	72.7%	9,576
Mercer County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+35.7	67.1%	9,375
Spencer County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+41.8	70.1%	9,088
Grant County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+49.9	74.2%	9,078
Carter County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+43.6	71.0%	9,042
Lincoln County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+46.3	72.4%	8,736
Ohio County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+45.3	71.9%	8,658
Harlan County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+61.3	79.9%	8,221
Breckinridge County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+43.3	70.9%	7,954
Perry County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+44.6	71.5%	7,911
Rowan County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+12.9	55.7%	7,816
Johnson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+55.8	77.1%	7,618
Bourbon County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+18.6	58.5%	7,549
Allen County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+52.2	75.3%	7,456
Bell County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+53.8	76.1%	7,393
Marion County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+28.6	63.5%	7,205
Harrison County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+33.6	66.0%	7,139
Adair County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+56.3	77.4%	7,103
Garrard County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+41.7	70.1%	5,119
Russell County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+53.8	76.1%	5,105
Simpson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+25.4	61.9%	5,037
Wayne County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+47.5	73.0%	5,013
Letcher County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+45.5	72.0%	4,838
Hart County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+41.6	70.0%	4,827
Henry County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+34.0	66.2%	4,635
Mason County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+25.2	61.8%	4,534
Rockcastle County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+54.6	76.5%	4,434
Clay County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+61.8	80.1%	4,315
Larue County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+41.9	70.2%	4,166
Trigg County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+33.9	66.2%	4,131
Casey County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+57.9	78.2%	4,064
Fleming County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+42.2	70.3%	4,018
Pendleton County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+45.0	71.7%	3,961
Lawrence County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+48.8	73.6%	3,773
Washington County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+31.8	65.1%	3,638
Estill County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+44.8	71.6%	3,610
Edmonson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+44.4	71.4%	3,586
McCreary County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+60.3	79.4%	3,565
Caldwell County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+39.8	69.1%	3,552
Union County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+39.9	69.1%	3,478
Knott County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+40.7	69.6%	3,446
Butler County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+47.8	73.1%	3,410
Jackson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+63.3	80.9%	3,406
Green County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+54.1	76.3%	3,362
Lewis County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+57.2	77.8%	3,284
Webster County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+38.9	68.7%	3,189
Owen County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+44.2	71.3%	3,154
Bath County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+32.8	65.6%	3,094
Morgan County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+45.1	71.8%	3,084
Powell County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+36.0	67.2%	3,077
Monroe County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+58.8	78.6%	3,047
Magoffin County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+45.6	72.0%	3,027
Metcalfe County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+46.2	72.3%	2,941
Breathitt County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+40.9	69.7%	2,935
Todd County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+39.4	68.9%	2,934
Livingston County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+44.6	71.5%	2,854
Clinton County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+57.9	78.2%	2,801
Hancock County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+29.0	63.7%	2,659
McLean County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+37.4	67.9%	2,659
Leslie County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+62.5	80.4%	2,501
Trimble County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+37.0	67.7%	2,439
Lyon County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+35.0	66.7%	2,403
Bracken County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+46.6	72.5%	2,380
Ballard County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+46.0	72.2%	2,346
Carroll County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+32.5	65.5%	2,311
Crittenden County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+49.9	74.2%	2,301
Gallatin County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+41.4	69.9%	2,249
Martin County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+65.1	81.8%	2,098
Cumberland County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+52.4	75.4%	1,974
Nicholas County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+30.6	64.5%	1,905
Menifee County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+39.2	68.8%	1,889
Wolfe County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+32.1	65.3%	1,674
Elliott County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+43.5	71.0%	1,671
Lee County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+49.2	73.8%	1,544
Carlisle County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+49.5	74.0%	1,498
Fulton County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+21.4	60.0%	1,231
Hickman County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+42.5	70.5%	1,188
Owsley County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+58.9	78.7%	1,056
Robertson County	RAndy Barr, RAndy Barr	R	R+42.8	70.6%	657

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   0.40 × -10.1 = -4.0

   No state generic-ballot poll. The generic ballot is R−D -8.6, a swing of -10.1 from the 2024 presidential margin. A race without its own poll uses that swing, not the 60/40 block. This state is not given another state's number.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D 19.7

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 40. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Jefferson County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 from 2020 D+27.6 w5, 2024 from 2020 D+27.6 w35, 2020 D+27.6 w20, 2022 D+23.5 w40. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 16.3

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 18.3

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D 15.7

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 17.9

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 30.6

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -4.1

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.45), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D 14.7

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 19.7

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 19.7

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    Omitted

    No public poll. 2 internal polls ignored. Rated from the generic congressional ballot, R−D -8.6. No state generic-ballot poll. The generic ballot is R−D -8.6, a swing of -10.1 from the 2024 presidential margin. A race without its own poll uses that swing, not the 60/40 block. This state is not given another state's number. There is no public poll, so there is no undecided line to split. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. No same-office polling miss was sourced, so none is added. Applied to the polling term: 0.00. Public pollsters: 0. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D 15.7

    This race has no independent poll, so the generic ballot is already the environment swing. It is not added a second time.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 added whole

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    R−D +0.30

    Trump endorsed Andy Barr. The presidential lean here is R−D 30.6, so the endorsement helps 0.30. Ballotpedia, Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2026 tables, page updated August 5, 2026. A primary endorsement is counted when that person is the nominee. A lost primary, a candidate not on the ballot, and a withdrawn endorsement are not.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. The state's 2024 presidential margin was inside 10 points, or there is no polling term.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    No poll to shrink toward

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    97% win probability

    Andy Barr 97.4% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 97.4 from Polymarket 97.4% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 15.3, which leaves 13.3. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    R−D -1.2

    The 2022 statewide margin was R−D 23.6 and the 2024 presidential margin was R−D 30.6. The country moved 1.4 from that presidential vote to the 2022 House vote. Fifteen percent of the difference is kept, capped at 1.5, so the state environment is -1.2 on top of the national swing.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    D+1.0

    Reported party on ballots already cast is D 51.7 R 40.5, a Democratic lead of 11.3 points of every ballot. At 4 days before the 2022 election that lead was 2.5. The difference is D+8.8. Fifteen percent is kept, capped at 1, so D+1.0. This is registration on the ballots returned so far, compared with the same point in the last midterm, not a count of how anyone voted and not another model's estimate of the electorate.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D 12.0 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 10 ratings, average R−D 12.0. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    stateLean 20.7% · trump 13.8% · favorability 12.7% · history 9.2% · candidate 6.9% · national 6.9% · electorate 5.7% · stateEnv 4.6% · turnout 3.4% · demographics 3.4% · finance 2.3% · issues 2.4% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    13.7

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    4.0 to 23.5

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    -1.3 to 28.6

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.