U.S. Senate

Why this race matters

This is the 25th closest Senate race in the forecast, 17.4 points, out of 35.

35 Senate races are on the 2026 ballot in this forecast (15 Democratic leads, 20 Republican leads). Seats that are not on the ballot are not assigned, so this is not a 100-seat chamber.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: R+21.5. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2024 R+29.6. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

Polling block: R+21.8. The published result is still the county sum.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Shelby County	DMarquita Bradshaw, DMarquita Bradshaw	D	D+31.4	65.0%	247,543
Davidson County	DMarquita Bradshaw, DMarquita Bradshaw	D	D+37.9	68.3%	219,899
Knox County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+8.0	53.3%	168,212
Hamilton County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+4.5	51.6%	132,254
Rutherford County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+11.0	54.8%	111,949
Williamson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+22.7	60.7%	109,683
Sumner County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+31.0	64.8%	74,120
Montgomery County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+7.9	53.3%	61,985
Wilson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+29.3	64.0%	61,605
Sullivan County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+46.4	72.5%	57,274
Blount County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+35.7	67.2%	52,484
Washington County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+31.0	64.8%	46,426
Maury County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+30.7	64.7%	39,493
Bradley County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+48.9	73.8%	37,337
Sevier County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+49.9	74.3%	33,337
Madison County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+10.1	54.4%	30,300
Anderson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+22.3	60.5%	27,709
Robertson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+37.4	68.0%	26,589
Putnam County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+34.0	66.3%	26,490
Cumberland County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+48.6	73.6%	26,265
Loudon County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+43.1	70.9%	25,178
Greene County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+53.7	76.2%	23,576
Roane County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+40.7	69.7%	20,784
Tipton County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+43.3	71.0%	20,268
Hawkins County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+57.1	77.9%	19,914
Jefferson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+50.7	74.7%	19,572
Hamblen County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+46.6	72.6%	19,334
Dickson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+36.5	67.6%	19,109
Coffee County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+41.0	69.8%	18,903
Carter County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+54.0	76.3%	18,843
McMinn County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+51.9	75.3%	18,251
Fayette County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+35.4	67.0%	17,966
Monroe County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+52.5	75.6%	16,924
Gibson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+40.6	69.6%	16,413
Cheatham County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+33.3	66.0%	15,726
Bedford County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+45.2	71.9%	15,232
Franklin County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+39.0	68.8%	14,957
Lawrence County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+54.3	76.5%	14,809
Warren County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+38.0	68.3%	12,900
Lincoln County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+55.5	77.1%	12,228
Marshall County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+41.4	70.0%	12,102
Cocke County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+54.5	76.6%	11,875
Campbell County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+53.4	76.0%	11,773
Henry County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+42.3	70.5%	11,431
Rhea County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+54.3	76.5%	10,951
Dyer County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+50.9	74.8%	10,913
Marion County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+39.8	69.2%	10,563
Claiborne County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+52.0	75.3%	7,440
Giles County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+39.8	69.2%	7,413
Weakley County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+43.5	71.1%	7,363
White County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+49.6	74.1%	7,108
Obion County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+52.6	75.6%	7,091
Hardin County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+56.5	77.6%	6,648
Henderson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+55.3	77.0%	6,622
Carroll County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+46.5	72.6%	6,532
McNairy County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+53.4	76.0%	6,193
Grainger County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+56.0	77.3%	6,118
Overton County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+42.6	70.6%	6,084
Hardeman County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+11.3	55.0%	5,701
Macon County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+57.3	78.0%	5,680
Hickman County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+42.4	70.5%	5,666
Fentress County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+58.5	78.6%	5,371
Scott County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+61.5	80.1%	5,280
DeKalb County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+42.7	70.7%	5,165
Smith County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+45.0	71.8%	5,132
Polk County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+50.4	74.5%	4,797
Union County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+52.3	75.5%	4,765
Morgan County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+54.9	76.7%	4,705
Unicoi County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+50.9	74.8%	4,695
Lauderdale County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+21.8	60.2%	4,543
Humphreys County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+34.7	66.7%	4,542
Johnson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+57.2	77.9%	4,453
Sequatchie County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+49.9	74.2%	4,337
Chester County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+52.0	75.3%	4,165
Haywood County	DMarquita Bradshaw, DMarquita Bradshaw	D	D+12.8	55.7%	4,034
Benton County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+43.8	71.2%	3,991
Cannon County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+47.2	72.9%	3,782
Wayne County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+63.0	80.8%	3,755
Stewart County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+44.2	71.4%	3,639
Grundy County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+49.3	74.0%	3,478
Bledsoe County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+52.6	75.6%	3,403
Meigs County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+50.1	74.4%	3,352
Crockett County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+42.5	70.6%	3,255
Lewis County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+47.9	73.2%	3,237
Jackson County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+40.9	69.8%	3,120
Decatur County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+51.0	74.8%	3,004
Trousdale County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+36.2	67.4%	2,337
Houston County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+34.6	66.6%	2,095
Clay County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+44.6	71.6%	2,067
Perry County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+48.7	73.7%	2,042
Moore County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+53.7	76.2%	2,008
Van Buren County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+45.6	72.1%	1,795
Pickett County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+48.2	73.4%	1,623
Hancock County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+58.2	78.4%	1,599
Lake County	RBill Hagerty, RBill Hagerty	R	R+38.6	68.7%	1,066

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   1.30 × -9.5 = -12.4

   This race has its own poll. The swing in the history blocks, before they shrink toward that poll, is the national block minus the 2024 presidential margin. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D 21.5

   Weights 2018 40 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 5. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Shelby County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 D+32.4 w40, 2024 D+21.7 w35, 2020 D+28.1 w20, 2022 from 2020 D+28.1 w5. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 15.7

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 19.7

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D 13.5

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 18.0

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 29.7

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -4.1

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.45), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Bill Hagerty's 2020 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again as favorability.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D 11.4

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 21.6

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 21.6

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    R−D 21.8

    Individual polls only, 21.8. No Wikipedia average row. Named support R−D 20. Allocated support R−D 21.8. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 57.5% Republican and 42.5% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 65.1 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A minor-party line is not published as its own candidate. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. No same-office polling miss was sourced, so none is added. Applied to the polling term: 0.00. Public pollsters: 1. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D 8.4

    The generic ballot stays in the blend next to the independent polls. It is not shrunk toward the poll and an internal does not replace it. Weight 9.5%.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    R+1.50 added whole

    Bill Hagerty keeps the incumbent term of 1.5 after shrinkage. Overperformance is a separate term and is not added again here. Bill Hagerty's 2020 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    R−D +0.30

    Trump endorsed Bill Hagerty. The presidential lean here is R−D 29.7, so the endorsement helps 0.30. Ballotpedia, Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2026 tables, page updated August 5, 2026. A primary endorsement is counted when that person is the nominee. A lost primary, a candidate not on the ballot, and a withdrawn endorsement are not.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    The office baseline was 21.5. The blend had not moved more than halfway toward the poll.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    96% win probability

    Bill Hagerty 96.4% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 96.4 from Kalshi 96.5% Republican; Polymarket 96.4% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 17.7, which leaves 14.3. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    R−D +0.1

    The 2022 statewide margin was R−D 32.0 and the 2024 presidential margin was R−D 29.7. The country moved 1.4 from that presidential vote to the 2022 House vote. Fifteen percent of the difference is kept, capped at 1.5, so the state environment is 0.1 on top of the national swing.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    D+0.8

    No party is on the file. Ballots that match a 2024 presidential county sit at R−D 24.3. The 2024 vote in the same counties was R−D 29.7. The early mix is D+5.4 relative to that vote. Fifteen percent is kept, capped at 1, so D+0.8. This is where the ballots were cast. A more college-educated or more nonwhite county still takes more of the national swing in the demographics block, and a more rural county takes less. That block is separate from this point. This is not a count of how anyone voted, and not another model's estimate of the electorate.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D 12.0 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 10 ratings, average R−D 12.0. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.7% · generic 8.8% · stateLean 14.1% · trump 9.4% · favorability 8.7% · history 6.3% · candidate 4.7% · national 4.7% · electorate 3.9% · stateEnv 3.1% · turnout 2.3% · demographics 2.3% · finance 1.6% · issues 1.7% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    17.4

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    10.2 to 24.7

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    6.2 to 28.6

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.