U.S. Senate

Why this race matters

This is the 21st closest Senate race in the forecast, 15.2 points, out of 35.

35 Senate races are on the 2026 ballot in this forecast (15 Democratic leads, 20 Republican leads). Seats that are not on the ballot are not assigned, so this is not a 100-seat chamber.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: D+12.5. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2024 D+9.0. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

Polling block: D+18.2. The published result is still the county sum.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Fairfax County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+42.9	70.7%	449,357
Loudoun County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+25.7	62.0%	175,477
Virginia Beach city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+11.0	54.7%	175,141
Prince William County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+29.1	63.7%	175,003
Chesterfield County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+14.0	56.2%	161,269
Henrico County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+35.1	66.7%	138,903
Arlington County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+65.2	81.8%	98,703
Chesapeake city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+11.5	54.9%	98,034
Richmond city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+73.4	85.9%	83,155
Norfolk city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+50.7	74.5%	65,854
Stafford County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+7.0	52.7%	63,916
Alexandria city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+64.3	81.3%	61,563
Spotsylvania County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+1.2	49.8%	60,906
Newport News city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+37.3	67.9%	58,154
Hanover County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+19.9	59.1%	56,200
Albemarle County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+38.8	68.6%	51,319
Hampton city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+48.4	73.4%	48,160
Roanoke County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+8.0	53.2%	43,667
Suffolk city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+24.0	61.2%	41,025
Frederick County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+20.2	59.3%	40,015
James City County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+9.9	54.2%	39,133
Bedford County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+43.0	70.7%	39,085
Rockingham County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+31.0	64.7%	37,356
Montgomery County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+14.0	56.2%	35,961
Fauquier County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+13.9	56.1%	34,246
Augusta County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+39.5	68.9%	34,004
Roanoke city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+31.7	65.0%	32,393
Portsmouth city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+47.2	72.8%	31,721
York County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+0.8	49.6%	30,404
Lynchburg city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+1.8	50.1%	28,231
Pittsylvania County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+33.5	65.9%	26,221
Campbell County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+40.0	69.2%	23,969
Franklin County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+35.6	67.0%	23,770
Washington County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+41.0	69.7%	22,616
Culpeper County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+15.2	56.8%	21,955
Henry County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+21.7	60.0%	19,541
Isle of Wight County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+10.7	54.5%	18,972
Shenandoah County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+31.6	65.0%	18,747
Louisa County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+16.9	57.6%	18,506
Charlottesville city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+75.0	86.7%	17,918
Gloucester County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+28.5	63.4%	17,800
Warren County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+27.4	62.9%	17,348
Orange County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+15.8	57.1%	17,107
Botetourt County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+36.6	67.5%	16,834
Powhatan County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+37.6	68.0%	16,026
Tazewell County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+52.7	75.5%	15,269
Goochland County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+13.3	55.8%	15,084
Halifax County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+12.1	55.2%	13,721
Pulaski County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+31.8	65.1%	13,602
Danville city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+29.1	63.7%	13,585
Caroline County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+1.8	50.1%	13,574
Prince George County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+12.2	55.3%	13,530
Amherst County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+26.8	62.6%	13,304
Harrisonburg city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+35.8	67.1%	13,260
Accomack County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+4.6	51.5%	13,182
Wise County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+46.1	72.3%	12,900
New Kent County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+25.9	62.1%	12,875
Fluvanna County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+1.9	50.1%	12,824
Mecklenburg County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+11.2	54.8%	12,508
Carroll County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+51.8	75.1%	12,426
Manassas city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+25.5	62.0%	12,319
Dinwiddie County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+10.9	54.7%	11,987
Wythe County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+46.2	72.3%	11,871
King George County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+16.9	57.6%	11,813
Smyth County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+44.2	71.3%	11,088
Staunton city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+19.5	59.0%	10,429
Salem city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+10.1	54.2%	8,088
Russell County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+46.0	72.2%	7,539
Fredericksburg city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+41.2	69.8%	7,523
Fairfax city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+42.2	70.3%	7,495
Greene County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+15.9	57.1%	7,405
Page County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+40.0	69.2%	7,364
Petersburg city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+82.2	90.3%	7,290
Winchester city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+20.2	59.3%	7,272
Rockbridge County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+21.5	60.0%	7,109
Waynesboro city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+4.2	51.3%	6,935
Westmoreland County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+1.1	49.7%	6,509
King William County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+27.6	63.0%	6,445
Scott County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+53.4	75.9%	6,164
Southampton County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+12.7	55.5%	6,048
Clarke County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+7.3	52.8%	6,017
Prince Edward County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+9.4	53.9%	5,797
Nelson County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+4.2	51.3%	5,775
Lee County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+50.8	74.6%	5,635
Hopewell city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+21.4	59.9%	5,540
Patrick County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+46.7	72.5%	5,407
Appomattox County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+40.6	69.5%	5,375
Floyd County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+24.5	61.4%	5,366
Buchanan County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+44.4	71.4%	5,200
Giles County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+37.6	68.0%	5,148
Northumberland County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+13.2	55.8%	5,047
Falls Church city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+68.9	83.6%	5,000
Colonial Heights city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+24.2	61.3%	4,985
Buckingham County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+9.6	54.0%	4,869
Brunswick County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+20.3	59.3%	4,760
Madison County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+23.5	61.0%	4,705
Alleghany County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+28.2	63.3%	4,615
Grayson County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+48.0	73.2%	4,517
Amelia County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+32.8	65.6%	4,478
Lancaster County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+0.9	49.6%	4,478
Poquoson city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+36.7	67.5%	4,473
Williamsburg city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+51.7	75.1%	4,377
Nottoway County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+8.9	53.6%	4,216
Northampton County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+16.3	57.4%	4,202
Bristol city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+26.7	62.5%	4,170
Radford city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+15.4	56.9%	4,029
Dickenson County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+37.5	67.9%	3,928
Middlesex County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+18.0	58.2%	3,837
Essex County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+3.4	50.9%	3,730
Lunenburg County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+11.3	54.9%	3,617
Cumberland County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+11.4	54.9%	3,375
Charlotte County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+20.5	59.4%	3,348
Manassas Park city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+36.5	67.4%	3,327
Mathews County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+27.9	63.1%	3,305
Martinsville city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+33.1	65.7%	3,155
Rappahannock County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+6.9	52.7%	3,099
Sussex County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+15.8	57.1%	3,009
Surry County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+12.6	55.5%	2,725
Greensville County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+21.5	59.9%	2,642
King and Queen County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+12.7	55.6%	2,567
Richmond County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+13.2	55.8%	2,560
Charles City County	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+24.4	61.4%	2,420
Franklin city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+31.9	65.2%	2,161
Bland County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+55.2	76.8%	1,978
Craig County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+49.8	74.1%	1,740
Lexington city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+39.8	69.1%	1,596
Buena Vista city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+25.8	62.1%	1,591
Covington city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+12.7	55.5%	1,522
Galax city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+29.6	64.0%	1,515
Bath County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+37.0	67.7%	1,440
Emporia city	DMark Warner, DMark Warner	D	D+38.2	68.3%	1,214
Norton city	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+22.8	60.6%	916
Highland County	RBert Mizusawa, RBert Mizusawa	R	R+29.9	64.1%	853

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   0.40 × -9.5 = -3.8

   This race has its own poll. The swing in the history blocks, before they shrink toward that poll, is the national block minus the 2024 presidential margin. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D -12.5

   Weights 2018 40 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 5. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Fairfax County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 D+44.0 w40, 2024 D+35.7 w35, 2020 D+41.3 w20, 2022 from 2020 D+41.3 w5. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D -16.9

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D -15.7

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D -16.9

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D -15.5

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D -5.8

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -10.9

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 1.19), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Mark Warner's 2020 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again as favorability.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D -17.5

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D -14.4

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D -14.4

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    R−D -17.9

    Individual polls only, -18.4. No Wikipedia average row. Named support R−D -18. Allocated support R−D -18.4. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 48.5% Republican and 51.5% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 47.1 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A minor-party line is not published as its own candidate. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. One same-office miss, 2024: the poll was R−D -10.2 and the result was -9.0, miss 1.2. A single cycle is noisy, so 40 percent is kept. It is added to the polling term only. It is not a separate weight. Applied to the polling term: 0.48. Public pollsters: 1. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D -16.6

    The generic ballot stays in the blend next to the independent polls. It is not shrunk toward the poll and an internal does not replace it. Weight 9.5%.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    D+2.70 added whole

    Mark Warner keeps the incumbent term of 2.7 after shrinkage. Overperformance is a separate term and is not added again here. Mark Warner has held this office about 18 years, so 1.2 is added for long service. Under eight years is unchanged. Mark Warner's 2020 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    None

    No sourced endorsement on this ballot.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. The state's 2024 presidential margin was inside 10 points, or there is no polling term.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    99% win probability

    Mark Warner 98.6% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 1.4 from Polymarket 1.4% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is -12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin -15.5, which leaves -13.4. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    National only

    No 2022 governor or Senate race, and no state generic ballot. This state uses the national environment only.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    D+0.3

    No party is on the file. Ballots that match a 2024 presidential county sit at R−D -7.5. The 2024 vote in the same counties was R−D -5.8. The early mix is D+1.7 relative to that vote. Fifteen percent is kept, capped at 1, so D+0.3. This is where the ballots were cast. A more college-educated or more nonwhite county still takes more of the national swing in the demographics block, and a more rural county takes less. That block is separate from this point. This is not a count of how anyone voted, and not another model's estimate of the electorate.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D -12.0 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 10 ratings, average R−D -12.0. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.7% · generic 8.8% · stateLean 14.1% · trump 9.4% · favorability 8.7% · history 6.3% · candidate 4.7% · national 4.7% · electorate 3.9% · stateEnv 3.1% · turnout 2.3% · demographics 2.3% · finance 1.6% · issues 1.7% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    -15.2

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    -22.5 to -7.9

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    -26.4 to -4.0

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.