Polls and ratings

Outlet words are copied from the Senate ratings table, not turned into points. The Economist’s “likely” and “very likely” are already rewritten there as lean and likely. A seat left off the table is blank, not safe. Polls are the Wikipedia average as of October 10, 2026.

1. Tilt 0–1.4
2. Lean 1.5–4.9
3. Likely 5.1–9.9
4. Very likely 10–14.9
5. Safe 15 or more

2 races, closest first. The same words are applied to the poll average. A margin of 5.0 is lean. 0 races pick the other party from at least one outlet. A bar in the cell is that disagreement. A toss-up is not marked.