U.S. Senate

Why this race matters

This is the 27th closest Senate race in the forecast, 20.0 points, out of 35.

35 Senate races are on the 2026 ballot in this forecast (15 Democratic leads, 20 Republican leads). Seats that are not on the ballot are not assigned, so this is not a 100-seat chamber.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: R+23.3. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2024 R+41.0. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

The polling block for this race was omitted.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Kanawha County	RADRachel Fetty Anderson, DRachel Fetty Anderson	D	D+2.6	50.3%	61,056
Berkeley County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+22.7	60.4%	45,527
Monongalia County	RADRachel Fetty Anderson, DRachel Fetty Anderson	D	D+8.5	53.3%	33,638
Wood County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+23.4	60.7%	30,279
Cabell County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+4.5	51.3%	28,750
Raleigh County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+31.6	64.9%	25,129
Harrison County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+19.6	58.8%	23,935
Jefferson County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+5.2	51.6%	23,660
Putnam County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+24.2	61.1%	22,322
Marion County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+8.6	53.3%	19,990
Mercer County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+38.4	68.2%	19,138
Ohio County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+4.4	51.2%	15,166
Wayne County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+27.7	62.9%	12,779
Fayette County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+16.4	57.2%	12,675
Greenbrier County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+18.1	58.1%	12,169
Preston County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+38.9	68.5%	11,707
Marshall County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+20.5	59.3%	10,738
Hancock County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+26.6	62.3%	10,574
Mineral County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+45.0	71.6%	10,471
Jackson County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+30.6	64.3%	10,405
Randolph County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+22.9	60.5%	9,408
Logan County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+36.9	67.5%	9,307
Mason County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+28.9	63.5%	8,559
Hampshire County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+46.2	72.2%	8,521
Nicholas County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+33.8	66.0%	8,145
Upshur County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+36.4	67.3%	8,000
Brooke County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+21.2	59.6%	7,938
Morgan County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+39.0	68.6%	5,352
Mingo County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+44.0	71.1%	4,995
Boone County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+20.9	59.5%	4,790
Wyoming County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+41.9	70.0%	4,451
Taylor County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+28.8	63.5%	4,275
Lincoln County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+29.8	64.0%	4,228
Lewis County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+35.3	66.7%	4,147
Hardy County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+34.4	66.2%	3,771
Barbour County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+35.7	66.9%	3,762
Monroe County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+35.1	66.6%	3,746
Wetzel County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+23.3	60.7%	3,628
Grant County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+61.1	79.6%	3,275
Roane County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+25.1	61.6%	3,248
McDowell County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+32.2	65.1%	3,192
Braxton County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+23.0	60.5%	3,126
Summers County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+22.9	60.5%	3,097
Ritchie County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+48.9	73.5%	2,383
Pocahontas County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+25.0	61.5%	2,296
Tucker County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+24.5	61.3%	2,139
Tyler County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+41.1	69.6%	2,128
Pendleton County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+39.8	68.9%	2,015
Pleasants County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+32.3	65.2%	1,970
Clay County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+32.7	65.4%	1,906
Webster County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+34.9	66.5%	1,764
Doddridge County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+48.8	73.4%	1,739
Calhoun County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+35.7	66.9%	1,727
Wirt County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+38.5	68.3%	1,518
Gilmer County	RShelley Moore Capito, RShelley Moore Capito	R	R+28.8	63.4%	1,380

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   1.30 × -10.1 = -13.1

   No state generic-ballot poll. The generic ballot is R−D -8.6, a swing of -10.1 from the 2024 presidential margin. A race without its own poll uses that swing, not the 60/40 block. This state is not given another state's number.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D 23.3

   Weights 2018 40 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 5. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Kanawha County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 D+26.3 w40, 2024 R+17.8 w35, 2020 R+18.8 w20, 2022 from 2020 R+18.8 w5. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 16.4

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 22.9

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D 10.2

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 17.4

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 41.9

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -4.1

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.45), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Shelley Moore Capito's 2020 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again as favorability.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D 8.1

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 23.3

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 23.3

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    Omitted

    No public poll. Rated from the generic congressional ballot, R−D -8.6. No state generic-ballot poll. The generic ballot is R−D -8.6, a swing of -10.1 from the 2024 presidential margin. A race without its own poll uses that swing, not the 60/40 block. This state is not given another state's number. There is no public poll, so there is no undecided line to split. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. No same-office polling miss was sourced, so none is added. Applied to the polling term: 0.00. Public pollsters: 0. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D 10.2

    This race has no independent poll, so the generic ballot is already the environment swing. It is not added a second time.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    R+2.30 added whole

    Shelley Moore Capito keeps the incumbent term of 2.3 after shrinkage. Overperformance is a separate term and is not added again here. Shelley Moore Capito has held this office about 12 years, so 0.8 is added for long service. Under eight years is unchanged. Shelley Moore Capito's 2020 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    R−D +0.30

    Trump endorsed Shelley Moore Capito. The presidential lean here is R−D 41.9, so the endorsement helps 0.30. Ballotpedia, Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2026 tables, page updated August 5, 2026. A primary endorsement is counted when that person is the nominee. A lost primary, a candidate not on the ballot, and a withdrawn endorsement are not.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. The state's 2024 presidential margin was inside 10 points, or there is no polling term.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    No poll to shrink toward

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    98% win probability

    Shelley Moore Capito 98.3% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 98.3 from Kalshi 97.9% Republican; Polymarket 98.6% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 20.5, which leaves 15.4. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    National only

    No 2022 governor or Senate race, and no state generic ballot. This state uses the national environment only.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    D+0.6

    Party is on the file, but there is no 2022 same-day comparison, so the raw lead is not the adjustment. Ballots that match a 2024 presidential county sit at R−D 38.1. The 2024 vote in the same counties was R−D 41.9. The early mix is D+3.8 relative to that vote. Fifteen percent is kept, capped at 1, so D+0.6. This is where the ballots were cast. A more college-educated or more nonwhite county still takes more of the national swing in the demographics block, and a more rural county takes less. That block is separate from this point. This is not a count of how anyone voted, and not another model's estimate of the electorate.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D 12.0 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 10 ratings, average R−D 12.0. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    stateLean 20.7% · trump 13.8% · favorability 12.7% · history 9.2% · candidate 6.9% · national 6.9% · electorate 5.7% · stateEnv 4.6% · turnout 3.4% · demographics 3.4% · finance 2.3% · issues 2.4% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    20.0

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    10.3 to 29.8

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    5.3 to 35.0

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.