U.S. Senate

Why this race matters

This is the 32nd closest Senate race in the forecast, 25.3 points, out of 35.

35 Senate races are on the 2026 ballot in this forecast (15 Democratic leads, 20 Republican leads). Seats that are not on the ballot are not assigned, so this is not a 100-seat chamber.

No incumbent is on the ballot.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: R+26.3. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2022 R+35.8. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

Polling block: R+22.2. The published result is still the county sum.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Jefferson County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+15.4	57.2%	233,716
Madison County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+4.0	51.5%	154,651
Mobile County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+11.5	55.3%	137,473
Baldwin County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+53.2	76.1%	95,937
Shelby County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+35.9	67.4%	89,821
Montgomery County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+35.7	67.4%	70,392
Tuscaloosa County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+15.4	57.2%	66,851
Lee County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+22.8	60.9%	57,255
Morgan County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+47.6	73.3%	42,034
Limestone County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+38.9	69.0%	41,819
Calhoun County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+39.8	69.4%	38,223
Etowah County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+50.7	74.9%	36,248
Houston County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+42.8	70.9%	34,808
Lauderdale County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+46.5	72.8%	34,225
St. Clair County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+59.2	79.1%	34,214
Cullman County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+75.5	87.3%	33,908
Elmore County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+47.1	73.1%	32,679
Marshall County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+66.7	82.9%	31,723
Talladega County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+28.8	63.9%	26,129
Walker County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+66.8	82.9%	23,429
DeKalb County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+69.0	84.0%	23,299
Autauga County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+41.3	70.2%	22,203
Blount County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+76.0	87.5%	22,144
Colbert County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+41.4	70.2%	21,333
Jackson County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+66.5	82.8%	18,516
Coffee County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+52.9	76.0%	17,540
Russell County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+6.6	52.8%	16,287
Tallapoosa County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+44.6	71.8%	15,736
Chilton County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+67.1	83.1%	15,538
Dale County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+47.3	73.2%	15,045
Covington County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+67.4	83.2%	13,446
Lawrence County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+57.3	78.2%	12,692
Dallas County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+37.5	68.3%	12,230
Chambers County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+17.8	58.4%	8,960
Escambia County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+40.8	69.9%	8,525
Marion County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+76.1	87.6%	7,722
Pike County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+19.8	59.4%	7,545
Clarke County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+11.7	55.3%	7,527
Cherokee County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+69.9	84.5%	7,414
Geneva County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+71.4	85.2%	7,075
Franklin County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+67.7	83.4%	6,896
Winston County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+78.0	88.5%	6,355
Randolph County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+59.3	79.1%	6,324
Barbour County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+9.3	54.2%	6,195
Monroe County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+17.7	58.4%	6,174
Marengo County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+1.6	50.3%	6,095
Pickens County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+17.9	58.5%	5,607
Butler County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+17.3	58.2%	5,335
Henry County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+45.2	72.1%	5,311
Bibb County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+58.8	78.9%	5,277
Washington County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+49.8	74.4%	4,813
Fayette County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+66.4	82.7%	4,771
Hale County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+12.2	55.6%	4,594
Macon County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+61.9	80.5%	4,466
Cleburne County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+78.0	88.5%	4,360
Choctaw County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+18.5	58.8%	4,187
Lamar County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+70.4	84.7%	3,925
Clay County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+64.6	81.8%	3,858
Conecuh County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+8.5	53.8%	3,808
Crenshaw County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+49.1	74.1%	3,700
Lowndes County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+42.9	71.0%	3,227
Sumter County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+46.8	72.9%	3,024
Coosa County	RBarry Moore, RBarry Moore	R	R+37.7	68.4%	3,006
Wilcox County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+37.1	68.1%	3,004
Perry County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+48.4	73.7%	2,545
Bullock County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+51.5	75.3%	2,344
Greene County	EWDEverett Wess, DEverett Wess	D	D+61.3	80.2%	2,304

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   1.20 × -9.5 = -11.4

   This race has its own poll. The swing in the history blocks, before they shrink toward that poll, is the national block minus the 2024 presidential margin. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D 26.3

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 40. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Jefferson County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 from 2020 D+20.6 w5, 2024 from 2020 D+20.6 w35, 2020 D+20.6 w20, 2022 D+5.2 w40. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 19.7

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 23.4

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D 17.5

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 21.6

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 30.6

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -4.1

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.45), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D 16.0

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 24.9

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 24.9

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    R−D 22.3

    Individual polls only, 22.3. No Wikipedia average row. Named support R−D 20.9. Allocated support R−D 22.3. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 57.7% Republican and 42.3% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 65.4 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A minor-party line is not published as its own candidate. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. No same-office polling miss was sourced, so none is added. Applied to the polling term: 0.00. Public pollsters: 2. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D 14.2

    The generic ballot stays in the blend next to the independent polls. It is not shrunk toward the poll and an internal does not replace it. Weight 9.5%.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 added whole

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    R−D +0.30

    Trump endorsed Barry Moore. The presidential lean here is R−D 30.6, so the endorsement helps 0.30. Ballotpedia, Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2026 tables, page updated August 5, 2026. A primary endorsement is counted when that person is the nominee. A lost primary, a candidate not on the ballot, and a withdrawn endorsement are not.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Applied

    Presidential margin 30.6. A thin poll may not move the result more than halfway from the office baseline 26.3 to the polling term. Held at 24.3. One poll does not rewrite the race.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    98% win probability

    Barry Moore 97.9% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 97.9 from Kalshi 97.9% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 24.6, which leaves 17.0. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    R−D +0.9

    The 2022 statewide margin was R−D 38.0 and the 2024 presidential margin was R−D 30.6. The country moved 1.4 from that presidential vote to the 2022 House vote. Fifteen percent of the difference is kept, capped at 1.5, so the state environment is 0.9 on top of the national swing.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    None

    No 2022 same-day party comparison, or the state does not report party on the ballots already cast. The raw Democratic mail lead is not used as a margin.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D 12.0 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 10 ratings, average R−D 12.0. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.7% · generic 8.8% · stateLean 14.1% · trump 9.4% · favorability 8.7% · history 6.3% · candidate 4.7% · national 4.7% · electorate 3.9% · stateEnv 3.1% · turnout 2.3% · demographics 2.3% · finance 1.6% · issues 1.7% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    25.3

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    18.0 to 32.6

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    14.0 to 36.4

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.