Governor

Why this race matters

This is the 8th closest governor race in the forecast, 6.9 points, out of 36.

36 governor races are in the forecast (19 Democratic leads, 17 Republican leads). A governor's race does not decide control of Congress.

No incumbent is on the ballot.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: D+1.5. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2022 D+3.4. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

Polling block: D+5.3. The published result is still the county sum.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Milwaukee County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+44.2	71.4%	374,800
Dane County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+58.7	78.6%	295,489
Waukesha County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+18.0	58.3%	222,601
Brown County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+1.6	50.1%	120,645
Outagamie County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+4.2	51.4%	90,633
Racine County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+0.3	49.4%	86,987
Winnebago County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+1.9	50.2%	77,076
Washington County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+33.8	66.2%	73,834
Kenosha County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+3.0	50.8%	73,275
Rock County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+18.1	58.3%	71,363
Marathon County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+13.5	56.0%	63,720
La Crosse County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+18.5	58.5%	58,510
Sheboygan County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+11.8	55.2%	54,596
Ozaukee County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+9.3	53.9%	51,185
Eau Claire County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+18.1	58.3%	51,027
St. Croix County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+11.3	54.9%	48,982
Walworth County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+15.4	57.0%	48,971
Fond du Lac County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+22.5	60.5%	47,329
Dodge County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+25.6	62.1%	40,733
Jefferson County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+9.4	54.0%	40,524
Manitowoc County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+17.2	57.9%	37,446
Portage County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+9.5	54.0%	34,954
Wood County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+12.5	55.5%	34,137
Chippewa County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+13.5	56.0%	31,101
Sauk County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+9.0	53.8%	30,431
Columbia County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+5.9	52.2%	28,219
Calumet County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+15.2	56.9%	26,614
Waupaca County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+25.3	61.9%	24,595
Polk County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+20.9	59.7%	22,850
Grant County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+5.0	51.8%	22,073
Barron County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+19.1	58.8%	21,685
Dunn County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+5.5	52.0%	20,793
Pierce County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+6.3	52.4%	20,507
Douglas County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+17.0	57.8%	20,381
Oconto County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+33.7	66.1%	20,152
Oneida County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+8.7	53.6%	16,093
Marinette County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+25.2	61.9%	14,306
Green County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+13.8	56.2%	14,272
Shawano County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+25.4	62.0%	13,773
Monroe County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+13.7	56.1%	13,694
Door County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+9.4	54.0%	13,539
Vernon County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+4.8	51.7%	10,742
Trempealeau County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+8.5	53.5%	10,409
Lincoln County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+14.9	56.7%	10,093
Iowa County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+21.6	60.1%	9,490
Vilas County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+16.0	57.3%	9,455
Clark County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+26.5	62.5%	8,993
Juneau County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+16.6	57.5%	8,530
Waushara County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+24.1	61.3%	8,432
Adams County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+13.9	56.2%	7,547
Kewaunee County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+20.8	59.7%	7,320
Bayfield County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+22.2	60.4%	7,260
Sawyer County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+6.7	52.6%	7,206
Langlade County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+24.8	61.7%	6,846
Jackson County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+6.0	52.3%	6,804
Taylor County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+37.7	68.1%	6,560
Green Lake County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+27.0	62.8%	6,478
Washburn County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+15.7	57.1%	6,432
Burnett County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+19.5	59.0%	6,346
Richland County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+1.7	50.1%	6,029
Crawford County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+1.8	50.2%	5,886
Ashland County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+20.0	59.3%	5,788
Lafayette County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+4.7	51.6%	5,722
Marquette County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+16.8	57.7%	5,523
Price County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+18.4	58.5%	5,200
Rusk County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+24.4	61.5%	4,850
Buffalo County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+16.8	57.7%	4,751
Forest County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+21.2	59.9%	2,992
Pepin County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+15.6	57.1%	2,556
Iron County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+15.1	56.8%	2,395
Florence County	RTom Tiffany, RTom Tiffany	R	R+38.0	68.2%	1,855
Menominee County	DDavid Crowley, DDavid Crowley	D	D+67.8	83.2%	923

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   0.40 × -9.5 = -3.8

   This race has its own poll. The swing in the history blocks, before they shrink toward that poll, is the national block minus the 2024 presidential margin. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D -1.4

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Milwaukee County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 D+35.1 w5, 2022 open seat D+40.3 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D -5.4

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D -4.1

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D -6.0

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D -4.6

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 0.9

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -8.9

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.97), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D -6.6

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D -3.5

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D -3.5

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    R−D -7.4

    Individual polls -6 (80%) and the Wikipedia average -4.6 (20%). Named support R−D -5.7. Allocated support R−D -5.7. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 50.2% Republican and 49.8% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 50.4 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A minor-party line is not published as its own candidate. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. One same-office miss, 2022: the poll was R−D 0.8 and the result was -3.4, miss -4.2. A single cycle is noisy, so 40 percent is kept. It is added to the polling term only. It is not a separate weight. Applied to the polling term: -1.68. Public pollsters: 2. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D -5.5

    The generic ballot stays in the blend next to the independent polls. It is not shrunk toward the poll and an internal does not replace it. Weight 9.5%.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 added whole

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    R−D +0.01

    Trump endorsed Tom Tiffany. The presidential lean here is R−D 0.9, so the endorsement helps 0.01. Ballotpedia, Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2026 tables, page updated August 5, 2026. A primary endorsement is counted when that person is the nominee. A lost primary, a candidate not on the ballot, and a withdrawn endorsement are not.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. The state's 2024 presidential margin was inside 10 points, or there is no polling term.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    86% win probability

    David Crowley 85.5% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 14.5 from Polymarket 14.5% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is -12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin -4.5, which leaves -9.0. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    R−D -2.4

    WI is adjusted 2.4 points toward the Democrats after the blend, from -4.7 to -7.1. Florida takes less of a Democratic national swing. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Arizona are not left pinned to a red presidential lean when the race is close. A seat already 15 points the other way, or a House seat whose own lines are 6 points that way and the race is already 4 points that way, only moves 1.2.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    National only

    This state already has its own environment adjustment after the blend. It is not given a second one.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    D+0.6

    No party is on the file. Ballots that match a 2024 presidential county sit at R−D -3.4. The 2024 vote in the same counties was R−D 0.9. The early mix is D+4.3 relative to that vote. Fifteen percent is kept, capped at 1, so D+0.6. This is where the ballots were cast. A more college-educated or more nonwhite county still takes more of the national swing in the demographics block, and a more rural county takes less. That block is separate from this point. This is not a count of how anyone voted, and not another model's estimate of the electorate.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D -1.5 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 7 ratings, average R−D -1.5. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.7% · generic 8.8% · stateLean 12.5% · trump 9.4% · favorability 8.7% · history 6.4% · candidate 6.3% · electorate 3.9% · stateEnv 3.9% · national 3.9% · turnout 2.3% · demographics 2.3% · finance 1.6% · issues 1.7% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    -6.9

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    -13.1 to -0.9

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    -16.3 to 2.4

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.