Texas
Governor
Incumbent on the ballot
Forecast as of October 7, 2026. These vote totals equal the sum of the counties below. Not a poll average.
RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott
Republican · Incumbent
DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa
Democratic
Other
Margin
R+10.0
Win probability
95.0%
80% interval
R+4.0 to R+16.2
95% interval
R+0.8 to R+19.4
Market
73%
Greg Abbott · win probability, not a vote shareRaw data Checking polls.
50,000 draws. The 80% interval is the 10th to the 90th percentile. The 95% interval is the 2.5th to the 97.5th. The thin mark is the 95% interval. The thick mark is the 80%. The hairline is zero. 8,343,443 ballots, equal to the table.
Counties
Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.
| Party | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+8.9 | 53.7% | 1,151,306 |
| Dallas County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+25.3 | 61.9% | 628,023 |
| Tarrant County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+2.4 | 50.5% | 608,591 |
| Bexar County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+12.7 | 55.6% | 560,408 |
| Travis County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+42.3 | 70.5% | 429,275 |
| Collin County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+8.7 | 53.7% | 381,104 |
| Denton County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+10.6 | 54.6% | 331,954 |
| Fort Bend County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+4.7 | 51.7% | 267,987 |
| Williamson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | Even | 49.3% | 227,968 |
| Montgomery County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+43.0 | 70.8% | 227,207 |
| El Paso County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+20.7 | 59.7% | 185,956 |
| Hidalgo County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+3.6 | 51.1% | 160,673 |
| Brazoria County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+17.2 | 57.9% | 119,805 |
| Galveston County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+24.2 | 61.4% | 117,573 |
| Bell County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+13.3 | 56.0% | 96,582 |
| Hays County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+8.6 | 53.6% | 92,979 |
| Lubbock County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+36.0 | 67.3% | 92,450 |
| Nueces County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+8.4 | 53.5% | 89,966 |
| Cameron County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+0.7 | 49.7% | 85,904 |
| Smith County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+41.8 | 70.2% | 76,799 |
| Comal County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+42.9 | 70.8% | 76,540 |
| McLennan County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+27.8 | 63.2% | 73,599 |
| Ellis County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+29.4 | 64.0% | 73,596 |
| Brazos County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+21.5 | 60.1% | 67,946 |
| Parker County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.4 | 81.0% | 67,173 |
| Jefferson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+5.2 | 51.9% | 63,821 |
| Guadalupe County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+26.8 | 62.7% | 62,952 |
| Johnson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+49.0 | 73.8% | 59,693 |
| Kaufman County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+26.4 | 62.5% | 51,315 |
| Randall County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+57.6 | 78.1% | 49,456 |
| Grayson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+50.8 | 74.7% | 48,741 |
| Webb County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+5.0 | 51.8% | 48,710 |
| Rockwall County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+38.5 | 68.6% | 46,051 |
| Midland County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+57.2 | 77.9% | 43,498 |
| Taylor County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+47.0 | 72.8% | 40,973 |
| Hunt County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+52.3 | 75.5% | 34,549 |
| Gregg County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+39.0 | 68.8% | 34,546 |
| Tom Green County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+44.9 | 71.8% | 33,613 |
| Wichita County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+41.1 | 69.8% | 32,918 |
| Ector County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+48.7 | 73.6% | 31,525 |
| Bastrop County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+15.4 | 57.0% | 29,433 |
| Henderson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.2 | 79.4% | 28,501 |
| Wise County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+66.8 | 82.7% | 28,281 |
| Bowie County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+45.2 | 71.9% | 27,097 |
| Hood County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.9 | 80.8% | 27,029 |
| Orange County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.3 | 81.0% | 26,874 |
| Victoria County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+39.6 | 69.1% | 26,068 |
| Angelina County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+48.5 | 73.5% | 25,462 |
| Potter County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+41.0 | 69.8% | 23,740 |
| Liberty County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+58.3 | 78.4% | 23,167 |
| Harrison County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+47.1 | 72.9% | 22,360 |
| Kendall County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+53.3 | 75.9% | 21,671 |
| Hardin County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+72.5 | 85.5% | 20,830 |
| Kerr County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+51.6 | 75.1% | 20,829 |
| Burnet County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+52.6 | 75.6% | 20,823 |
| Van Zandt County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+71.5 | 85.0% | 20,665 |
| Waller County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+22.2 | 60.4% | 20,377 |
| Wilson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+50.6 | 74.6% | 20,173 |
| San Patricio County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+32.9 | 65.7% | 18,918 |
| Nacogdoches County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+35.1 | 66.8% | 18,842 |
| Walker County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+36.5 | 67.5% | 18,620 |
| Chambers County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.3 | 80.5% | 18,473 |
| Medina County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+40.2 | 69.4% | 18,196 |
| Wood County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+66.6 | 82.6% | 18,036 |
| Polk County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+55.5 | 77.0% | 17,965 |
| Coryell County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+37.6 | 68.1% | 17,689 |
| Rusk County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+56.1 | 77.3% | 16,055 |
| Lamar County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+57.6 | 78.1% | 15,710 |
| Cherokee County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+59.0 | 78.8% | 15,167 |
| Cooke County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.9 | 81.3% | 15,115 |
| Upshur County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.3 | 82.9% | 14,708 |
| Navarro County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+48.4 | 73.5% | 14,669 |
| Anderson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+58.3 | 78.4% | 14,316 |
| Atascosa County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+39.5 | 69.0% | 13,643 |
| Erath County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+64.4 | 81.5% | 13,575 |
| Washington County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+51.7 | 75.2% | 13,469 |
| Brown County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+70.7 | 84.7% | 12,467 |
| Hopkins County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.9 | 79.8% | 12,408 |
| Hill County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.9 | 79.7% | 12,356 |
| Gillespie County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+58.2 | 78.4% | 12,193 |
| Wharton County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+48.0 | 73.3% | 12,171 |
| Starr County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+6.8 | 52.7% | 12,146 |
| Fannin County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.9 | 81.2% | 12,121 |
| Jasper County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.1 | 80.9% | 11,717 |
| Maverick County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+9.5 | 54.0% | 11,646 |
| Caldwell County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+11.6 | 55.1% | 11,604 |
| Austin County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+59.5 | 79.1% | 11,377 |
| Val Verde County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+21.0 | 59.8% | 10,784 |
| Cass County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.0 | 80.3% | 10,460 |
| Grimes County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+56.4 | 77.5% | 10,388 |
| Llano County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+57.9 | 78.2% | 10,077 |
| Bandera County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+58.9 | 78.7% | 10,055 |
| Palo Pinto County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.7 | 81.2% | 9,863 |
| Fayette County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+58.5 | 78.5% | 9,859 |
| Matagorda County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+46.9 | 72.8% | 9,844 |
| Jim Wells County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+11.0 | 54.8% | 9,815 |
| Aransas County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+52.7 | 75.7% | 9,637 |
| San Jacinto County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.1 | 80.3% | 9,461 |
| Panola County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.9 | 80.8% | 8,461 |
| Lampasas County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+56.6 | 77.6% | 8,357 |
| Montague County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+74.4 | 86.5% | 8,210 |
| Milam County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+53.6 | 76.1% | 8,206 |
| Lavaca County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.0 | 85.8% | 7,757 |
| Titus County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+50.7 | 74.6% | 7,551 |
| Kleberg County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+9.5 | 54.1% | 7,405 |
| Colorado County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+54.0 | 76.3% | 7,393 |
| Shelby County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+61.1 | 79.8% | 7,359 |
| Uvalde County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+28.7 | 63.7% | 7,227 |
| Howard County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+58.9 | 78.7% | 7,131 |
| Tyler County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.9 | 84.3% | 7,085 |
| Bosque County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+64.0 | 81.3% | 7,080 |
| Burleson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+59.2 | 78.9% | 6,928 |
| Houston County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+51.9 | 75.3% | 6,926 |
| Hale County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+53.9 | 76.3% | 6,863 |
| Limestone County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+53.3 | 76.0% | 6,709 |
| Leon County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.3 | 86.0% | 6,702 |
| Freestone County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.8 | 80.7% | 6,691 |
| Bee County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+36.1 | 67.3% | 6,502 |
| Blanco County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+49.1 | 73.8% | 6,301 |
| Lee County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+57.1 | 77.8% | 6,223 |
| Eastland County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+74.0 | 86.3% | 6,186 |
| Young County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+72.9 | 85.7% | 6,147 |
| Hutchinson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+74.0 | 86.3% | 6,097 |
| Robertson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+47.8 | 73.2% | 6,032 |
| Hockley County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.8 | 80.7% | 5,909 |
| Calhoun County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+48.1 | 73.3% | 5,794 |
| DeWitt County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.3 | 80.9% | 4,196 |
| Gonzales County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+51.2 | 74.9% | 4,159 |
| Gray County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.6 | 86.1% | 4,065 |
| Trinity County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.1 | 80.8% | 3,955 |
| Callahan County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.9 | 86.3% | 3,746 |
| Jones County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+68.7 | 83.7% | 3,726 |
| Rains County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.1 | 83.9% | 3,515 |
| Comanche County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.7 | 84.2% | 3,510 |
| Gaines County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+77.8 | 88.2% | 3,441 |
| Jackson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+66.7 | 82.7% | 3,395 |
| Falls County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+40.8 | 69.7% | 3,366 |
| Willacy County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+1.6 | 50.1% | 3,292 |
| Andrews County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.9 | 83.3% | 3,249 |
| Clay County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.6 | 87.1% | 3,167 |
| Red River County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+57.5 | 78.0% | 3,109 |
| Newton County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.2 | 80.4% | 3,083 |
| Scurry County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.6 | 84.1% | 3,068 |
| Sabine County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+74.4 | 86.5% | 2,993 |
| Madison County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.2 | 79.4% | 2,944 |
| Frio County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+18.4 | 58.5% | 2,919 |
| Morris County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+46.5 | 72.5% | 2,914 |
| Zapata County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+14.0 | 56.3% | 2,882 |
| Moore County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.7 | 80.7% | 2,874 |
| Franklin County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+65.3 | 82.0% | 2,848 |
| Somervell County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.0 | 82.8% | 2,834 |
| Camp County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+48.9 | 73.7% | 2,811 |
| Archer County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.7 | 87.1% | 2,753 |
| Nolan County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+55.3 | 76.9% | 2,743 |
| Live Oak County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+65.9 | 82.3% | 2,731 |
| Karnes County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+53.0 | 75.8% | 2,722 |
| Brewster County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+7.8 | 53.2% | 2,708 |
| Duval County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+2.2 | 50.4% | 2,640 |
| Marion County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+47.9 | 73.2% | 2,528 |
| Hamilton County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.8 | 83.2% | 2,394 |
| Wilbarger County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+56.6 | 77.6% | 2,394 |
| Deaf Smith County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+47.5 | 73.0% | 2,299 |
| Pecos County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+39.6 | 69.1% | 2,270 |
| Jack County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+78.3 | 88.4% | 2,254 |
| Coleman County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.0 | 86.8% | 2,229 |
| Lamb County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.2 | 79.4% | 2,227 |
| Runnels County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.3 | 85.9% | 2,175 |
| Goliad County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+56.1 | 77.4% | 2,137 |
| Dimmit County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+9.5 | 54.0% | 2,028 |
| Ward County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.6 | 79.6% | 2,019 |
| Stephens County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.5 | 87.1% | 2,017 |
| San Augustine County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+52.1 | 75.4% | 2,009 |
| McCulloch County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.3 | 83.9% | 1,885 |
| Dawson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+55.9 | 77.3% | 1,883 |
| Zavala County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+21.7 | 60.2% | 1,873 |
| Reeves County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+29.3 | 64.0% | 1,845 |
| Terry County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.6 | 79.6% | 1,834 |
| Carson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+77.3 | 87.9% | 1,701 |
| Refugio County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+35.6 | 67.1% | 1,648 |
| Ochiltree County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+77.6 | 88.1% | 1,614 |
| Mills County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.3 | 85.9% | 1,470 |
| San Saba County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.1 | 86.8% | 1,450 |
| Delta County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+65.5 | 82.0% | 1,426 |
| Brooks County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+15.4 | 57.0% | 1,421 |
| La Salle County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+14.5 | 56.6% | 1,396 |
| Lynn County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+65.6 | 82.1% | 1,377 |
| Mason County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+61.1 | 79.9% | 1,355 |
| Mitchell County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.0 | 82.8% | 1,348 |
| Parmer County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+65.7 | 82.1% | 1,343 |
| Kimble County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+74.1 | 86.3% | 1,288 |
| Yoakum County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+66.5 | 82.5% | 1,283 |
| Childress County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+72.2 | 85.4% | 1,219 |
| Wheeler County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+80.9 | 89.7% | 1,219 |
| Swisher County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+59.1 | 78.8% | 1,215 |
| Haskell County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.1 | 82.8% | 1,205 |
| Floyd County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.0 | 79.3% | 1,121 |
| Martin County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+71.2 | 84.9% | 1,117 |
| Castro County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+53.8 | 76.2% | 1,084 |
| Hartley County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+79.6 | 89.1% | 1,081 |
| Hansford County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+80.9 | 89.7% | 1,072 |
| Presidio County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+35.4 | 67.0% | 1,070 |
| Real County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.5 | 81.0% | 1,050 |
| Winkler County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+65.4 | 82.0% | 1,037 |
| Crosby County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+46.6 | 72.6% | 1,008 |
| Fisher County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+58.6 | 78.6% | 981 |
| Coke County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+76.0 | 87.3% | 973 |
| Jim Hogg County | DGina Hinojosa, DGina Hinojosa | D | D+14.4 | 56.5% | 938 |
| Bailey County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+56.6 | 77.6% | 933 |
| Shackelford County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+78.7 | 88.7% | 927 |
| Donley County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+74.2 | 86.4% | 918 |
| Baylor County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.3 | 85.9% | 896 |
| Hemphill County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+72.0 | 85.3% | 865 |
| Garza County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+68.5 | 83.5% | 857 |
| Dallam County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+74.1 | 86.3% | 776 |
| Kinney County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+46.5 | 72.5% | 761 |
| Crockett County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+49.1 | 73.8% | 760 |
| Hardeman County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+68.8 | 83.7% | 754 |
| Sutton County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.1 | 80.3% | 751 |
| Crane County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.7 | 83.2% | 743 |
| Knox County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+63.6 | 81.0% | 738 |
| Upton County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+72.2 | 85.4% | 699 |
| Jeff Davis County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+18.2 | 58.4% | 692 |
| Lipscomb County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.6 | 87.1% | 675 |
| Collingsworth County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+73.5 | 86.0% | 645 |
| Concho County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.4 | 84.0% | 643 |
| Hall County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.0 | 83.8% | 616 |
| Armstrong County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+81.8 | 90.3% | 595 |
| Schleicher County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.0 | 79.3% | 595 |
| Menard County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+62.7 | 80.6% | 558 |
| Hudspeth County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+40.0 | 69.3% | 557 |
| Edwards County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+69.2 | 83.9% | 539 |
| Dickens County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+66.8 | 82.7% | 533 |
| Oldham County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+80.3 | 89.5% | 522 |
| Reagan County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+65.2 | 81.9% | 509 |
| Throckmorton County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+79.1 | 88.8% | 483 |
| Cochran County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+61.4 | 80.0% | 479 |
| Sherman County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+83.1 | 90.8% | 468 |
| Irion County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+71.6 | 85.2% | 465 |
| Culberson County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+10.0 | 54.3% | 462 |
| Briscoe County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.9 | 87.2% | 399 |
| Stonewall County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+64.8 | 81.8% | 384 |
| Glasscock County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+84.0 | 91.3% | 356 |
| Cottle County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+67.9 | 83.2% | 352 |
| Motley County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+84.2 | 91.4% | 349 |
| Sterling County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+82.0 | 90.2% | 338 |
| Roberts County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+88.2 | 93.5% | 306 |
| Foard County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+60.3 | 79.5% | 292 |
| McMullen County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+80.8 | 89.7% | 261 |
| Kent County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+72.8 | 85.8% | 239 |
| Terrell County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+49.8 | 74.2% | 217 |
| Borden County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+87.0 | 92.8% | 207 |
| Kenedy County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+42.4 | 70.6% | 85 |
| King County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+87.5 | 93.1% | 72 |
| Loving County | RGreg Abbott, RGreg Abbott | R | R+75.0 | 86.5% | 52 |
Model
- Raw data
2024 presidential baseline
National R−D 1.5County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.
- Raw data
Generic ballot
D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.
- Raw data
Party identification
Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.
- Model input
National block
R−D -7.860% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.
- Model input
Swing transmitted
0.86 × -9.3 = -8.0Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.
- Raw data
2026 early vote
None reportedNo verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.
- Model input
History block
R−D 10.9Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 40. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+60.1 w5, 2022 R+59.0 w40. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.
- Model input
Electorate block
R−D 4.7History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.
- Model input
Turnout block
R−D 7.3Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. No verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin.
- Model input
National environment
R−D 3.0History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.
- Model input
State environment
R−D 5.9History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.
- Model input
State partisan lean
R−D 13.7The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.
- Model input
Trump popularity
R−D -5.0New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.54), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.
- Model input
Candidate favorability
R−D -1.0Greg Abbott's record minus this place's partisan lean is D+2.8. Thirty-five percent of that gap, capped at 5, is the favorability term, D+1.0. The old margin is not reused.
- Model input
Demographics
R−D 1.4County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.
- Model input
Finance
R−D 8.2No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.
- Model input
Issues
R−D 8.2No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.
- Model input
Polling
R−D 3.3Individual polls 2.2 (80%) and the Wikipedia average 1.8 (20%). Named support R−D 1.9. Allocated support R−D 2.1. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 53.5% Republican and 46.5% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 56.9 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 1. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: 1.20. Public pollsters: 19. Outliers: 1. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.
- Model input
Candidate
R+3.00 reaches the resultGreg Abbott gets a governor incumbent term of 3.0. Job-approval net is +1. Approval is only even, so the term is 3 points. Overperformance is a separate term and is not added again here. Greg Abbott's 2022 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again.
- Model input
Halfway floor
AppliedPresidential margin 13.7. A thin poll may not move the result more than halfway from the office baseline 10.9 to the polling term. Held at 7.1. One poll does not rewrite the race.
- Model input
Pooling
35% of the way from each history block toward the polling termOtherwise the shrink is 35%.
- Model input
Prediction market
73% win probabilityGreg Abbott 73.2% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 73.2 from Kalshi 73.0% Republican; Polymarket 73.3% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 8.1. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 10.1, which leaves 8.9. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.
- Model input
State bend
NoneNot applied.
- Model input
Weights
polling 20.4% · history 7.5% · candidate 7.4% · electorate 4.7% · stateEnv 4.7% · national 4.7% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 1.9% · issues 1.9% · stateLean 14.9% · trump 11.2% · favorability 10.3% · market 5.0%History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.
County-sum margin
10.0This is the sum of the reporting units after each unit moved off its own history. It is not the poll average.
80% interval
4.0 to 16.210th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.
95% interval
0.8 to 19.42.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.
Wikipedia, 2026 United States gubernatorial elections (general-election infobox) www.texastribune.org/2025/11/09/texas-greg-abbott-reelection-campaign-governor/