1611 Forecasting

2026 elections

Ohio

Ohio

Governor

Open seat

Forecast as of October 7, 2026. These vote totals equal the sum of the counties below. Not a poll average.

RVivek Ramaswamy, R

Vivek Ramaswamy

Republican

2,322,676 votesWin probability 76.1%

DAmy Acton, D

Amy Acton

Democratic

2,062,232 votesWin probability 23.9%

Other

44,674 votes

Margin

R+5.9

Win probability

76.1%

80% interval

D+4.8 to R+16.7

95% interval

D+10.4 to R+22.3

Market

67%

Amy Acton · win probability, not a vote share

Raw data Checking polls.

The office baseline and the polling term disagree by more than 8 points, so the interval is widened. The market and the polls disagree by more than 15 points of win probability, so the market weight is cut in half and the interval is widened. The thin mark is the 95% interval. The thick mark is the 80%. The hairline is zero. 4,429,582 ballots, equal to the table.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.

Counties
Party
Franklin CountyDAmy Acton, DAmy ActonDD+30.664.8%476,824
Cuyahoga CountyDAmy Acton, DAmy ActonDD+34.466.7%459,555
Hamilton CountyDAmy Acton, DAmy ActonDD+15.757.3%326,979
Summit CountyDAmy Acton, DAmy ActonDD+10.654.8%218,181
Montgomery CountyDAmy Acton, DAmy ActonDD+2.350.6%203,260
Lucas CountyDAmy Acton, DAmy ActonDD+16.757.9%152,037
Stark CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+17.358.2%146,956
Butler CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+24.061.5%146,146
Lorain CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+1.050.0%126,848
Warren CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+30.564.8%111,394
Delaware CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+6.652.8%106,418
Lake CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+11.355.2%102,570
Clermont CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+34.166.6%91,063
Mahoning CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+2.350.7%89,916
Medina CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+21.460.2%85,399
Trumbull CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+9.454.2%77,017
Licking CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+26.662.8%75,845
Greene CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+19.259.1%71,844
Fairfield CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+21.460.2%67,375
Portage CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+10.254.6%66,378
Wood CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+6.852.9%53,916
Clark CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+25.262.1%50,142
Miami CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+43.171.1%47,222
Richland CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+37.568.3%46,569
Geauga CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+21.860.4%43,799
Wayne CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+35.067.0%42,405
Columbiana CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+42.970.9%38,340
Allen CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+40.569.7%36,996
Ashtabula CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+22.360.6%34,607
Tuscarawas CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+36.767.9%34,329
Erie CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+8.953.9%31,710
Muskingum CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+38.868.9%31,383
Hancock CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+36.367.6%30,274
Union CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+28.563.8%29,755
Ross CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+33.366.2%26,278
Knox CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+40.369.6%25,608
Jefferson CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+37.368.1%24,943
Scioto CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+40.369.6%24,880
Belmont CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+40.769.8%24,764
Washington CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+39.869.4%24,738
Sandusky CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+25.562.2%23,710
Pickaway CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+43.471.2%23,361
Marion CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+35.967.4%21,829
Athens CountyDAmy Acton, DAmy ActonDD+19.959.4%16,424
Huron CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+33.966.5%15,743
Darke CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+57.678.3%15,621
Lawrence CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+40.669.8%15,454
Ashland CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+41.970.4%15,425
Auglaize CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+57.278.1%14,824
Shelby CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+56.177.5%14,630
Seneca CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+29.164.0%14,615
Ottawa CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+16.057.5%13,859
Mercer CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+59.479.2%13,740
Logan CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+48.273.6%13,540
Fulton CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+33.966.5%12,989
Preble CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+50.774.8%12,527
Brown CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+52.175.6%12,405
Clinton CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+47.173.0%12,022
Madison CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+35.467.2%11,957
Champaign CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+42.170.5%11,841
Crawford CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+43.671.3%11,711
Highland CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+54.176.5%11,562
Putnam CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+61.280.1%11,428
Defiance CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+31.665.3%11,081
Morrow CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+46.572.7%10,909
Williams CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+41.070.0%10,572
Guernsey CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+41.870.4%10,179
Perry CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+43.171.0%9,830
Coshocton CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+41.970.4%9,449
Henry CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+38.968.9%8,626
Van Wert CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+51.575.3%8,522
Jackson CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+47.373.1%8,264
Carroll CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+44.271.6%7,994
Hocking CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+33.566.2%7,804
Gallia CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+49.474.2%7,521
Hardin CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+44.871.9%7,459
Fayette CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+46.072.5%7,273
Adams CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+55.377.2%7,191
Holmes CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+61.380.1%7,136
Pike CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+40.669.8%7,068
Wyandot CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+42.670.8%6,589
Meigs CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+46.872.9%6,017
Paulding CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+46.472.7%5,367
Harrison CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+44.671.8%4,113
Monroe CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+46.372.7%3,931
Morgan CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+42.270.6%3,924
Noble CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+52.675.8%3,564
Vinton CountyRVivek Ramaswamy, RVivek RamaswamyRR+45.672.3%3,319

Model

  1. Raw data

    2024 presidential baseline

    National R−D 1.5

    County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

  2. Raw data

    Generic ballot

    D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2

    National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.

  3. Raw data

    Party identification

    Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

    Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

  4. Model input

    National block

    R−D -7.8

    60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

  5. Model input

    Swing transmitted

    1.30 × -9.3 = -12.1

    Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

  6. Raw data

    2026 early vote

    745 reported cast

    745 ballots reported cast as of 10/6/2026: 745 mail returned and 0 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.

  7. Model input

    History block

    R−D 12.5

    Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+47.1 w5, 2022 open seat R+71.3 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.

  8. Model input

    Electorate block

    R−D 3.1

    History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

  9. Model input

    Turnout block

    R−D 7.0

    Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. 745 ballots reported cast as of 10/6/2026: 745 mail returned and 0 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share.

  10. Model input

    National environment

    R−D 0.1

    History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.

  11. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 4.4

    History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.

  12. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 11.3

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

  13. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -5.7

    New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.62), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

  14. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

  15. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D -1.8

    County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.

  16. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 8.0

    No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.

  17. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 8.0

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.

  18. Model input

    Polling

    R−D -0.3

    Individual polls -4.1 (80%) and the Wikipedia average -4.3 (20%). Named support R−D -4.3. Allocated support R−D -4.1. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 52.8% Republican and 47.2% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 55.7 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 1. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: 3.78. Public pollsters: 9. Outliers: 3. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.

  19. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 reaches the result

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none.

  20. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Applied

    Presidential margin 11.3. A thin poll may not move the result more than halfway from the office baseline 12.5 to the polling term. Held at 6.1. One poll does not rewrite the race.

  21. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

  22. Model input

    Prediction market

    67% win probability

    Amy Acton 66.8% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 33.3 from Kalshi 34.0% Republican; Polymarket 32.5% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is -5.9. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 6.1, which leaves -1.1. It enters once, at 2.5%. The polling term is not nudged. The market and the polls differ by more than 15 points of win probability, so the weight is half of 5% and the interval is wider.

  23. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

  24. Model input

    Weights

    polling 21.0% · history 7.7% · candidate 7.6% · electorate 4.8% · stateEnv 4.8% · national 4.8% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 2.0% · issues 2.0% · stateLean 15.3% · trump 11.5% · favorability 10.5% · market 2.5%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.

  25. County-sum margin

    5.9

    This is the sum of the reporting units after each unit moved off its own history. It is not the poll average.

  26. 80% interval

    -4.8 to 16.7

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

  27. 95% interval

    -10.4 to 22.3

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.

Wikipedia, 2026 United States gubernatorial elections (general-election infobox) apnews.com/article/election-2026-ohio-governor-vivek-ramaswamy-799f0c8bdb38c43cd1c2846411867711