Governor

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Votes ↓
Douglas County	LWDLynne Walz, DLynne Walz	D	D+11.4	55.0%	205,638
Lancaster County	LWDLynne Walz, DLynne Walz	D	D+6.8	52.7%	118,562
Sarpy County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+10.7	54.7%	75,767
Buffalo County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+42.3	70.5%	17,870
Hall County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+35.5	67.1%	17,152
Lincoln County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+52.9	75.8%	12,383
Dodge County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+29.9	64.3%	12,367
Cass County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+34.7	66.7%	11,850
Madison County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+53.7	76.2%	11,801
Platte County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+56.3	77.5%	11,777
Scotts Bluff County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+44.7	71.7%	11,312
Adams County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+39.6	69.1%	10,804
Saunders County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+43.6	71.2%	10,203
Washington County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+40.5	69.6%	9,436
Gage County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+36.0	67.4%	8,211
Seward County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+43.8	71.2%	6,908
Dawson County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+47.4	73.1%	6,387
Otoe County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+36.6	67.6%	6,166
York County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+49.1	73.9%	5,253
Dakota County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+26.9	62.8%	4,603
Custer County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+70.0	84.3%	4,427
Saline County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+29.4	64.0%	4,253
Hamilton County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+58.2	78.4%	4,173
Holt County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+70.8	84.7%	4,094
Red Willow County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+66.1	82.4%	4,003
Phelps County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+66.3	82.5%	3,734
Box Butte County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+52.9	75.8%	3,709
Cedar County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+66.9	82.8%	3,695
Butler County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+56.9	77.8%	3,450
Cheyenne County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+61.5	80.1%	3,407
Cuming County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+58.2	78.4%	3,343
Knox County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+60.6	79.7%	3,337
Merrick County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+62.7	80.7%	3,266
Keith County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+61.5	80.1%	3,158
Wayne County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+46.8	72.7%	3,063
Richardson County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+49.2	73.9%	2,965
Pierce County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+74.0	86.4%	2,931
Dawes County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+43.4	71.0%	2,909
Burt County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+42.1	70.4%	2,750
Jefferson County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+42.7	70.7%	2,731
Kearney County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+55.9	77.3%	2,711
Howard County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+59.4	79.0%	2,670
Colfax County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+48.2	73.4%	2,645
Antelope County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+73.5	86.1%	2,593
Nemaha County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+42.4	70.5%	2,570
Clay County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+61.2	79.9%	2,490
Cherry County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+70.5	84.6%	1,674
Stanton County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+61.7	80.2%	1,671
Boone County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+61.2	79.9%	1,653
Fillmore County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+48.9	73.8%	1,643
Dixon County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+53.1	75.9%	1,579
Thayer County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+55.4	77.0%	1,555
Polk County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+58.6	78.7%	1,537
Sheridan County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+63.4	81.0%	1,355
Morrill County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+62.5	80.6%	1,323
Furnas County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+64.9	81.8%	1,316
Thurston County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+3.1	50.9%	1,278
Valley County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+59.1	78.9%	1,253
Nuckolls County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+58.9	78.8%	1,232
Johnson County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+34.4	66.5%	1,173
Chase County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+72.6	85.6%	1,017
Nance County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+54.7	76.7%	1,001
Harlan County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+63.0	80.9%	982
Webster County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+60.0	79.3%	962
Kimball County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+61.9	80.3%	938
Sherman County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+54.3	76.5%	920
Brown County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+69.6	84.1%	895
Franklin County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+64.4	81.5%	872
Hitchcock County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+72.1	85.4%	781
Perkins County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+67.9	83.3%	778
Frontier County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+67.5	83.1%	769
Pawnee County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+51.6	75.1%	752
Greeley County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+61.5	80.1%	673
Garden County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+65.2	81.9%	609
Gosper County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+58.6	78.7%	609
Boyd County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+69.7	84.2%	587
Garfield County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+70.9	84.8%	554
Deuel County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+63.6	81.2%	552
Dundy County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+73.4	86.0%	507
Rock County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+74.1	86.4%	455
Sioux County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+71.1	84.9%	370
Keya Paha County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+78.5	88.6%	297
Hayes County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+85.9	92.2%	270
Wheeler County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+69.4	84.2%	265
Logan County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+82.1	90.4%	240
Hooker County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+67.8	83.3%	233
Loup County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+60.9	79.8%	233
Thomas County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+72.4	85.5%	214
Banner County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+74.9	86.7%	211
Grant County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+85.4	92.0%	199
Blaine County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+67.3	83.0%	159
Arthur County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+81.8	90.3%	154
McPherson County	RJim Pillen, RJim Pillen	R	R+83.1	90.9%	154

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2

   National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -7.8

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   0.79 × -9.3 = -7.4

   Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Raw data

   2026 early vote

   21,696 reported cast

   21,696 ballots reported cast as of 10/7/2026: 19,780 mail returned and 1,916 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.

7. Model input

   History block

   R−D 21.9

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 40. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+38.3 w5, 2022 R+44.5 w40. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.

8. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 13.4

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

9. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 15.8

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. 21,696 ballots reported cast as of 10/7/2026: 19,780 mail returned and 1,916 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share.

10. Model input

    National environment

    R−D 10.9

    History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.

11. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 13.6

    History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.

12. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 20.6

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

13. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -4.1

    New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.45), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

14. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.5

    Jim Pillen's record minus this place's partisan lean is R+1.3. Thirty-five percent of that gap, capped at 5, is the favorability term, R+0.5. The old margin is not reused.

15. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D 9.4

    County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.

16. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 15.7

    No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.

17. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 15.7

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.

18. Model input

    Polling

    R−D 4.3

    Individual polls 3.5 (80%) and the Wikipedia average 7.3 (20%). Named support R−D 3.5. Allocated support R−D 4.3. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 55.2% Republican and 44.8% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 60.4 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 1. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: 0.00. Public pollsters: 2. Outliers: 1. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.

19. Model input

    Candidate

    R+4.50 reaches the result

    Jim Pillen gets a governor incumbent term of 4.5. Job-approval net is +11. That is solid, so the term is 4.5 points. Overperformance is a separate term and is not added again here. Jim Pillen's 2022 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again.

20. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Applied

    Presidential margin 20.6. A thin poll may not move the result more than halfway from the office baseline 21.9 to the polling term. Held at 13.1. One poll does not rewrite the race.

21. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

22. Model input

    Prediction market

    89% win probability

    Jim Pillen 89.5% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 89.5 from Kalshi 89.4% Republican; Polymarket 89.5% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 17.6, which leaves 14.2. It enters once, at 2.5%. The polling term is not nudged. The market and the polls differ by more than 15 points of win probability, so the weight is half of 5% and the interval is wider.

23. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

24. Model input

    Weights

    polling 21.0% · history 7.7% · candidate 7.6% · electorate 4.8% · stateEnv 4.8% · national 4.8% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 2.0% · issues 2.0% · stateLean 15.3% · trump 11.5% · favorability 10.5% · market 2.5%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.

25. County-sum margin

    17.5

    This is the sum of the reporting units after each unit moved off its own history. It is not the poll average.

26. 80% interval

    6.9 to 28.2

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

27. 95% interval

    1.2 to 33.8

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.