Governor

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Votes ↓
Wayne County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+37.4	67.7%	658,094
Oakland County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+17.2	57.6%	593,113
Macomb County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+4.5	51.3%	391,129
Kent County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+10.2	54.1%	285,610
Genesee County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+13.5	55.8%	171,496
Washtenaw County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+49.9	74.0%	170,037
Ottawa County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+16.1	57.1%	137,074
Ingham County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+36.7	67.4%	113,724
Kalamazoo County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+23.4	60.7%	111,906
Livingston County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+17.2	57.6%	101,730
Saginaw County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+4.5	51.3%	79,783
St. Clair County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+24.4	61.2%	74,159
Muskegon County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+6.1	52.1%	73,115
Monroe County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+17.5	57.8%	70,178
Berrien County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+2.5	50.3%	64,908
Jackson County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+13.2	55.6%	64,389
Allegan County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+20.0	59.0%	55,236
Calhoun County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+6.2	52.1%	52,624
Eaton County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+4.9	51.5%	50,074
Grand Traverse County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+3.4	50.7%	48,221
Bay County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+5.4	51.7%	47,123
Lapeer County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+30.3	64.2%	42,593
Lenawee County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+14.6	56.3%	42,268
Midland County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+9.5	53.8%	38,638
Clinton County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+0.9	49.5%	38,387
Van Buren County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+7.4	52.7%	31,627
Shiawassee County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+13.3	55.7%	31,258
Marquette County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+15.9	57.0%	29,960
Barry County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+25.7	61.9%	29,674
Montcalm County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+29.1	63.6%	26,765
Ionia County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+22.2	60.2%	26,133
Isabella County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+1.1	49.6%	23,678
Tuscola County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+33.0	65.5%	23,601
St. Joseph County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+25.8	61.9%	22,518
Newaygo County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+34.2	66.1%	22,434
Cass County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+26.0	62.0%	21,413
Hillsdale County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+42.4	70.2%	19,065
Sanilac County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+38.5	68.3%	17,932
Emmet County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+5.4	51.7%	17,555
Mecosta County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+21.2	59.7%	17,279
Delta County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+21.0	59.5%	16,807
Houghton County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+8.6	53.3%	11,903
Branch County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+32.6	65.3%	11,747
Chippewa County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+14.7	56.4%	11,287
Mason County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+13.3	55.7%	11,099
Gratiot County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+20.6	59.3%	11,056
Leelanau County	DJocelyn Benson, DJocelyn Benson	D	D+12.7	55.4%	10,867
Charlevoix County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+10.3	54.2%	10,855
Wexford County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+26.1	62.1%	10,849
Huron County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+31.3	64.7%	10,567
Antrim County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+16.9	57.5%	10,376
Clare County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+27.7	62.9%	9,630
Alpena County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+18.7	58.4%	9,587
Manistee County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+7.4	52.7%	9,402
Cheboygan County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+22.5	60.3%	9,148
Roscommon County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+23.7	60.9%	8,949
Otsego County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+26.8	62.4%	8,896
Iosco County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+21.1	59.6%	8,763
Gladwin County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+30.1	64.1%	8,628
Dickinson County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+27.5	62.8%	8,529
Oceana County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+21.3	59.7%	8,284
Benzie County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+1.8	49.9%	7,896
Osceola County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+38.5	68.3%	7,344
Menominee County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+23.6	60.8%	7,275
Ogemaw County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+31.5	64.8%	7,030
Kalkaska County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+33.5	65.8%	6,422
Arenac County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+29.3	63.7%	5,102
Missaukee County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+47.0	72.5%	5,098
Gogebic County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+6.1	52.1%	5,097
Presque Isle County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+20.0	59.0%	4,868
Crawford County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+24.4	61.2%	4,721
Mackinac County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+16.9	57.5%	4,449
Alcona County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+31.8	64.9%	4,167
Iron County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+19.6	58.9%	3,915
Lake County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+22.3	60.2%	3,852
Montmorency County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+36.0	67.1%	3,560
Alger County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+10.2	54.1%	3,232
Oscoda County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+35.1	66.6%	2,892
Schoolcraft County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+22.2	60.1%	2,728
Baraga County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+20.1	59.1%	2,414
Ontonagon County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+20.7	59.4%	2,140
Luce County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+35.8	66.9%	1,663
Keweenaw County	RJohn James, RJohn James	R	R+6.4	52.2%	990

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2

   National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -7.8

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   0.40 × -9.3 = -3.7

   Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Raw data

   2026 early vote

   204,544 reported cast

   204,544 ballots reported cast as of 10/7/2026: 204,544 mail returned and 0 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.

7. Model input

   History block

   R−D -5.4

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+25.8 w5, 2022 open seat R+36.9 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.

8. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D -9.3

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

9. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D -8.1

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. 204,544 ballots reported cast as of 10/7/2026: 204,544 mail returned and 0 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share.

10. Model input

    National environment

    R−D -10.0

    History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.

11. Model input

    State environment

    R−D -8.7

    History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.

12. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 1.4

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

13. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -8.8

    New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.95), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

14. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

15. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D -10.7

    County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.

16. Model input

    Finance

    R−D -7.6

    No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.

17. Model input

    Issues

    R−D -7.6

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.

18. Model input

    Polling

    R−D -11.7

    Individual polls -7.1 (80%) and the Wikipedia average -8.1 (20%). Named support R−D -7.4. Allocated support R−D -7.3. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 50.4% Republican and 49.6% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 50.7 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: -4.38. Public pollsters: 14. Outliers: 2. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.

19. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 reaches the result

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none.

20. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. The state's 2024 presidential margin was inside 10 points, or there is no polling term.

21. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

22. Model input

    Prediction market

    93% win probability

    Jocelyn Benson 93.2% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 6.8 from Kalshi 7.3% Republican; Polymarket 6.2% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is -12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin -6.7, which leaves -9.9. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

23. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

24. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.4% · history 7.5% · candidate 7.4% · electorate 4.7% · stateEnv 4.7% · national 4.7% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 1.9% · issues 1.9% · stateLean 14.9% · trump 11.2% · favorability 10.3% · market 5.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.

25. County-sum margin

    -6.9

    This is the sum of the reporting units after each unit moved off its own history. It is not the poll average.

26. 80% interval

    -13.0 to -0.8

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

27. 95% interval

    -16.2 to 2.4

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.