Governor

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Votes ↓
Johnson County	DCindy Holscher, DCindy Holscher	D	D+15.3	56.8%	278,704
Sedgwick County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+4.2	51.2%	173,615
Shawnee County	DCindy Holscher, DCindy Holscher	D	D+11.0	54.6%	66,331
Douglas County	DCindy Holscher, DCindy Holscher	D	D+46.6	72.4%	47,054
Wyandotte County	DCindy Holscher, DCindy Holscher	D	D+33.1	65.6%	41,024
Leavenworth County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+13.0	55.6%	29,629
Butler County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+30.7	64.4%	26,134
Reno County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+22.7	60.4%	21,840
Riley County	DCindy Holscher, DCindy Holscher	D	D+11.9	55.1%	19,710
Saline County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+19.5	58.8%	18,830
Miami County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+29.4	63.8%	15,148
Crawford County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+13.2	55.7%	13,242
Harvey County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+10.2	54.2%	13,041
McPherson County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+29.4	63.8%	11,434
Ellis County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+32.3	65.3%	10,954
Cowley County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+28.0	63.1%	10,949
Pottawatomie County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+36.4	67.3%	10,922
Lyon County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+2.5	50.3%	10,747
Franklin County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+28.1	63.1%	10,302
Montgomery County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+41.8	70.0%	10,086
Finney County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+23.5	60.8%	8,741
Barton County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+44.5	71.3%	8,569
Sumner County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+37.4	67.8%	8,552
Jefferson County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+23.8	61.0%	8,048
Geary County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+8.8	53.5%	7,428
Dickinson County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+42.4	70.3%	7,413
Cherokee County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+42.2	70.2%	7,067
Ford County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+27.7	62.9%	6,667
Labette County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+26.6	62.4%	6,422
Osage County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+33.4	65.8%	6,398
Atchison County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+24.1	61.1%	5,882
Neosho County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+35.6	66.9%	5,500
Bourbon County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+43.1	70.7%	5,328
Jackson County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+29.7	64.0%	5,248
Marion County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+36.4	67.3%	4,759
Nemaha County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+52.4	75.3%	4,556
Allen County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+33.0	65.6%	4,540
Linn County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+52.6	75.4%	4,067
Marshall County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+33.4	65.8%	4,027
Seward County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+28.6	63.4%	3,701
Coffey County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+43.4	70.8%	3,549
Brown County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+36.6	67.4%	3,452
Clay County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+42.7	70.5%	3,334
Pratt County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+37.8	68.0%	3,310
Cloud County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+46.1	72.1%	3,281
Rice County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+44.2	71.2%	3,215
Kingman County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+47.8	73.0%	3,200
Wabaunsee County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+35.0	66.6%	3,110
Anderson County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+46.2	72.2%	3,074
Thomas County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+53.5	75.8%	2,970
Wilson County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+50.2	74.2%	2,921
Doniphan County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+52.2	75.2%	2,900
Russell County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+49.3	73.7%	1,941
Mitchell County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+50.3	74.3%	1,865
Ottawa County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+54.4	76.3%	1,765
Greenwood County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+48.3	73.2%	1,695
Morris County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+33.3	65.8%	1,641
Ellsworth County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+38.9	68.5%	1,621
Phillips County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+61.6	79.9%	1,614
Washington County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+55.8	77.0%	1,587
Pawnee County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+38.1	68.2%	1,573
Sherman County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+57.7	78.0%	1,524
Harper County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+52.1	75.2%	1,502
Rooks County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+59.8	79.0%	1,490
Republic County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+53.3	75.8%	1,436
Norton County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+55.7	76.9%	1,335
Grant County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+52.0	75.1%	1,305
Gray County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+58.7	78.4%	1,289
Barber County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+60.9	79.5%	1,276
Scott County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+64.2	81.2%	1,255
Smith County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+57.5	77.9%	1,179
Stafford County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+51.5	74.9%	1,122
Stevens County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+65.1	81.6%	1,078
Osborne County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+55.6	76.9%	1,043
Meade County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+59.0	78.6%	996
Rush County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+52.0	75.1%	943
Trego County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+57.4	77.8%	932
Jewell County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+62.9	80.5%	925
Chautauqua County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+61.5	79.8%	898
Lincoln County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+52.6	75.4%	886
Woodson County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+48.2	73.2%	885
Chase County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+38.4	68.3%	859
Decatur County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+57.7	78.0%	853
Cheyenne County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+58.7	78.5%	836
Rawlins County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+59.4	78.8%	825
Logan County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+61.0	79.6%	823
Gove County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+64.6	81.4%	821
Sheridan County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+68.9	83.5%	807
Ness County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+67.0	82.5%	802
Elk County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+57.5	77.9%	786
Kearny County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+56.3	77.3%	765
Graham County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+54.2	76.2%	756
Haskell County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+53.0	75.6%	751
Edwards County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+53.4	75.7%	746
Kiowa County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+60.1	79.1%	651
Morton County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+63.2	80.7%	623
Clark County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+60.6	79.4%	596
Hodgeman County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+60.8	79.5%	567
Comanche County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+57.0	77.6%	514
Wichita County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+65.0	81.6%	506
Lane County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+58.2	78.2%	495
Hamilton County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+53.9	76.0%	479
Wallace County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+74.5	86.4%	440
Stanton County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+53.1	75.6%	390
Greeley County	RTy Masterson, RTy Masterson	R	R+61.0	79.7%	349

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2

   National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -7.8

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   0.40 × -9.3 = -3.7

   Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Raw data

   2026 early vote

   None reported

   No verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.

7. Model input

   History block

   R−D 4.6

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+11.2 w5, 2022 open seat R+38.8 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.

8. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 3.9

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

9. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 5.1

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. No verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin.

10. Model input

    National environment

    R−D 2.9

    History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.

11. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 4.3

    History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.

12. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 16.1

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

13. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -4.3

    New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.46), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

14. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

15. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D 2.2

    County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.

16. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 5.3

    No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.

17. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 5.3

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.

18. Model input

    Polling

    R−D 6.7

    Individual polls 4.7 (80%) and the Wikipedia average 5.8 (20%). Named support R−D 4.5. Allocated support R−D 4.9. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 54.1% Republican and 45.9% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 58.2 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 1. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: 1.74. Public pollsters: 3. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.

19. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 reaches the result

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none.

20. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. At least three public polls from different pollsters, and none is an outlier.

21. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

22. Model input

    Prediction market

    75% win probability

    Ty Masterson 75.4% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 75.4 from Kalshi 74.5% Republican; Polymarket 76.3% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 8.9. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 5.3, which leaves 7.4. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

23. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

24. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.4% · history 7.5% · candidate 7.4% · electorate 4.7% · stateEnv 4.7% · national 4.7% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 1.9% · issues 1.9% · stateLean 14.9% · trump 11.2% · favorability 10.3% · market 5.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.

25. County-sum margin

    5.4

    This is the sum of the reporting units after each unit moved off its own history. It is not the poll average.

26. 80% interval

    -0.7 to 11.5

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

27. 95% interval

    -4.0 to 14.6

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.