Governor

Why this race matters

This is the 24th closest governor race in the forecast, 17.0 points, out of 36.

36 governor races are in the forecast (19 Democratic leads, 17 Republican leads). A governor's race does not decide control of Congress.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: D+12.4. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2022 D+12.5. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

Polling block: D+18.9. The published result is still the county sum.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Cook County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+49.3	73.9%	1,700,596
DuPage County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+17.0	57.8%	371,786
Will County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+7.3	52.9%	268,691
Lake County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+25.1	61.8%	255,753
Kane County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+12.9	55.7%	183,854
McHenry County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+0.7	49.6%	133,695
Madison County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+10.9	54.7%	109,635
Winnebago County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+1.9	50.2%	100,084
St. Clair County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+8.5	53.5%	98,933
Sangamon County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+1.7	50.1%	81,727
Champaign County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+23.4	61.0%	73,279
McLean County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+3.8	51.2%	71,245
Peoria County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+5.2	51.9%	65,096
Tazewell County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+25.0	61.8%	56,196
Kendall County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+4.8	51.7%	54,545
Rock Island County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+12.5	55.5%	52,311
LaSalle County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+9.0	53.8%	43,352
Kankakee County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+17.3	57.9%	39,286
DeKalb County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+5.8	52.2%	39,014
Macon County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+15.6	57.1%	37,392
Williamson County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+37.5	68.0%	27,283
Adams County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+52.6	75.6%	26,246
Vermilion County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+31.1	64.8%	24,398
Grundy County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+20.3	59.4%	21,943
Whiteside County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+9.5	54.0%	21,852
Ogle County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+25.8	62.2%	21,289
Henry County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+22.5	60.5%	20,722
Boone County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+15.3	56.9%	20,022
Macoupin County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+29.4	64.0%	19,350
Jackson County	DJB Pritzker, DJB Pritzker	D	D+4.3	51.4%	18,464
Knox County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+7.2	52.9%	18,335
Coles County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+26.1	62.3%	17,751
Woodford County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+42.7	70.6%	17,456
Stephenson County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+17.8	58.2%	17,334
Monroe County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+33.9	66.2%	17,271
Clinton County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+50.5	74.6%	15,887
Effingham County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+60.4	79.5%	15,761
Franklin County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+47.3	72.9%	14,622
Marion County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+47.5	73.0%	13,854
Jefferson County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+48.5	73.5%	13,757
Livingston County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+42.3	70.4%	13,673
Fulton County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+15.7	57.1%	13,343
Lee County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+16.8	57.7%	13,304
Bureau County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+19.7	59.1%	13,223
Christian County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+36.1	67.3%	12,844
Morgan County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+29.9	64.2%	12,112
Randolph County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+37.3	67.9%	11,850
Iroquois County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+56.8	77.7%	11,003
Montgomery County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+33.6	66.1%	10,904
Logan County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+37.2	67.9%	10,381
Jo Daviess County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+13.2	55.9%	8,192
McDonough County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+20.6	59.6%	7,157
Jersey County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+42.2	70.4%	7,008
Shelby County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+51.7	75.1%	6,992
Saline County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+45.0	71.8%	6,355
Fayette County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+57.0	77.8%	5,756
Piatt County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+23.8	61.2%	5,693
Perry County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+41.5	70.0%	5,540
Hancock County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+49.7	74.1%	5,430
Crawford County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+49.2	73.9%	5,352
Douglas County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+43.7	71.1%	5,037
Mercer County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+22.0	60.3%	5,002
Wayne County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+71.7	85.1%	4,956
Union County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+36.0	67.3%	4,930
Clark County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+51.9	75.2%	4,917
Bond County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+36.5	67.5%	4,784
Edgar County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+45.8	72.2%	4,739
Carroll County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+29.2	63.9%	4,697
Richland County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+51.2	74.9%	4,642
De Witt County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+39.0	68.8%	4,637
Washington County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+51.3	75.0%	4,532
Pike County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+55.5	77.0%	4,499
Warren County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+22.6	60.6%	4,455
White County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+59.3	78.9%	4,234
Clay County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+63.6	81.1%	4,056
Massac County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+47.5	73.0%	4,002
Ford County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+44.2	71.4%	3,924
Moultrie County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+44.0	71.3%	3,910
Menard County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+31.0	64.8%	3,850
Mason County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+30.2	64.4%	3,819
Marshall County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+29.8	64.2%	3,673
Johnson County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+53.4	76.0%	3,659
Lawrence County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+53.3	75.9%	3,659
Greene County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+47.1	72.9%	3,629
Cumberland County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+54.4	76.5%	3,457
Jasper County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+61.9	80.2%	3,249
Wabash County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+54.6	76.6%	3,224
Cass County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+34.0	66.3%	3,142
Hamilton County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+56.3	77.5%	2,506
Schuyler County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+37.8	68.2%	2,251
Putnam County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+13.2	55.9%	2,203
Henderson County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+30.0	64.3%	2,075
Edwards County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+69.8	84.2%	1,971
Stark County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+38.4	68.5%	1,655
Calhoun County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+38.2	68.4%	1,606
Scott County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+53.0	75.8%	1,550
Gallatin County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+46.8	72.7%	1,516
Alexander County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+9.1	53.8%	1,502
Brown County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+57.5	78.1%	1,472
Pulaski County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+31.1	64.8%	1,425
Pope County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+54.6	76.6%	1,278
Hardin County	RDarren Bailey, RDarren Bailey	R	R+52.4	75.5%	1,154

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   0.80 × -9.5 = -7.7

   This race has its own poll. The swing in the history blocks, before they shrink toward that poll, is the national block minus the 2024 presidential margin. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D -13.7

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 40. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Cook County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 D+15.7 w5, 2022 D+49.9 w40. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D -17.2

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D -14.7

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D -19.7

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D -16.9

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D -11.0

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -12.5

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 1.37), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    JB Pritzker's 2022 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again as favorability.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D -21.4

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D -14.7

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D -14.7

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    R−D -16.5

    Individual polls only, -18. No Wikipedia average row. Named support R−D -18. Allocated support R−D -18. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 47.2% Republican and 52.8% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 44.4 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A minor-party line is not published as its own candidate. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. One same-office miss, 2022: the poll was R−D -16.2 and the result was -12.5, miss 3.7. A single cycle is noisy, so 40 percent is kept. It is added to the polling term only. It is not a separate weight. Applied to the polling term: 1.48. Public pollsters: 2. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D -21.8

    The generic ballot stays in the blend next to the independent polls. It is not shrunk toward the poll and an internal does not replace it. Weight 9.5%.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    D+1.90 added whole

    JB Pritzker gets a governor incumbent term of 1.9. Job-approval net is -1. Approval is underwater, so the term stays 1.5. Overperformance is a separate term and is not added again here. JB Pritzker has held this office about 8 years, so 0.4 is added for long service. Under eight years is unchanged. JB Pritzker's 2022 race is already in the history block, so it is not applied again. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    R−D -1.16

    Trump endorsed Darren Bailey. The presidential lean here is R−D -11.0, so the endorsement costs 0.81. Ballotpedia, Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2026 tables, page updated August 5, 2026. A primary endorsement is counted when that person is the nominee. A lost primary, a candidate not on the ballot, and a withdrawn endorsement are not. The Teamsters endorsed JB Pritzker. That is the union's usual party, so 0.35 is kept. Teamsters Joint Council 25, October 8, 2026. These are Democratic endorsements, the union's usual party, so the credit is the smaller one.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    The office baseline was -13.7. The blend had not moved more than halfway toward the poll.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    98% win probability

    JB Pritzker 97.7% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 2.3 from Kalshi 3.0% Republican; Polymarket 1.6% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is -12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin -17.3, which leaves -14.1. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    R−D -0.4

    The 2022 statewide margin was R−D -12.5 and the 2024 presidential margin was R−D -11.0. The country moved 1.4 from that presidential vote to the 2022 House vote. Fifteen percent of the difference is kept, capped at 1.5, so the state environment is -0.4 on top of the national swing.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    None

    No early-vote adjustment. The state has no usable same-day comparison and no county file that covers the state.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D -11.3 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 7 ratings, average R−D -11.3. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.7% · generic 8.8% · stateLean 12.5% · trump 9.4% · favorability 8.7% · history 6.4% · candidate 6.3% · electorate 3.9% · stateEnv 3.9% · national 3.9% · turnout 2.3% · demographics 2.3% · finance 1.6% · issues 1.7% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    -17.0

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    -24.2 to -9.7

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    -28.1 to -5.7

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.