Governor

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Votes ↓
Polk County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+23.3	61.0%	214,118
Linn County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+21.6	60.1%	102,524
Scott County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+8.5	53.6%	75,189
Johnson County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+50.4	74.5%	72,110
Black Hawk County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+14.4	56.5%	52,492
Dallas County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+6.3	52.4%	52,475
Dubuque County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+4.4	51.5%	44,042
Story County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+23.4	61.0%	41,221
Pottawattamie County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+7.9	53.3%	37,209
Woodbury County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+10.0	54.3%	35,753
Warren County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+7.0	52.8%	27,366
Clinton County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+3.4	51.0%	19,951
Cerro Gordo County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+1.0	49.8%	19,222
Jasper County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+12.1	55.4%	16,881
Muscatine County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+1.4	50.0%	16,501
Marion County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+24.8	61.7%	16,329
Des Moines County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+1.1	49.9%	15,917
Sioux County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+60.9	79.7%	15,819
Marshall County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+1.4	50.0%	14,425
Webster County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+15.8	57.2%	13,997
Lee County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+9.7	54.2%	13,534
Boone County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+6.3	52.5%	12,858
Wapello County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+14.9	56.8%	12,208
Bremer County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+8.8	53.7%	12,196
Benton County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+19.5	59.1%	12,123
Plymouth County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+42.1	70.4%	11,672
Winneshiek County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+3.5	51.1%	9,993
Washington County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+11.7	55.2%	9,678
Dickinson County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+26.4	62.5%	9,377
Carroll County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+27.8	63.2%	9,317
Jones County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+12.4	55.5%	9,173
Mahaska County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+38.6	68.6%	9,141
Jackson County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+17.3	58.0%	9,034
Buchanan County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+12.3	55.5%	8,976
Cedar County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+8.6	53.6%	8,901
Delaware County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+26.1	62.4%	8,473
Madison County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+25.0	61.8%	8,374
Poweshiek County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+2.7	50.7%	8,354
Fayette County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+15.7	57.2%	8,225
Iowa County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+15.2	56.9%	8,058
Henry County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+20.9	59.8%	8,021
Clayton County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+20.2	59.4%	7,860
Tama County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+12.1	55.3%	7,200
Clay County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+29.0	63.8%	7,133
Hardin County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+24.2	61.4%	7,066
Kossuth County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+29.6	64.1%	7,018
Jefferson County	DRob Sand, DRob Sand	D	D+7.5	53.1%	6,969
Mills County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+25.7	62.2%	6,889
Butler County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+31.2	64.9%	6,726
Harrison County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+21.3	60.0%	4,822
Floyd County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+5.6	52.1%	4,632
Hamilton County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+11.0	54.8%	4,600
Buena Vista County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+10.8	54.7%	4,565
O'Brien County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+40.8	69.7%	4,557
Allamakee County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+12.4	55.5%	4,436
Page County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+21.6	60.1%	4,432
Cass County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+20.3	59.5%	4,370
Grundy County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+21.1	59.9%	4,332
Lyon County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+50.3	74.5%	4,243
Crawford County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+22.6	60.6%	3,963
Guthrie County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+17.1	57.8%	3,957
Shelby County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+24.0	61.3%	3,940
Appanoose County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+22.9	60.8%	3,927
Chickasaw County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+13.9	56.3%	3,784
Cherokee County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+23.7	61.2%	3,699
Union County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+14.4	56.5%	3,642
Hancock County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+26.4	62.5%	3,604
Mitchell County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+10.4	54.5%	3,497
Wright County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+15.3	57.0%	3,466
Winnebago County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+9.6	54.1%	3,418
Sac County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+30.2	64.4%	3,309
Keokuk County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+28.9	63.8%	3,123
Louisa County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+17.7	58.2%	3,120
Calhoun County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+23.9	61.3%	3,094
Humboldt County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+28.8	63.7%	3,078
Montgomery County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+19.8	59.2%	3,074
Palo Alto County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+21.4	60.0%	3,023
Franklin County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+20.5	59.6%	2,967
Greene County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+10.3	54.5%	2,961
Howard County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+9.7	54.2%	2,938
Emmet County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+20.7	59.7%	2,907
Lucas County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+25.8	62.2%	2,818
Monona County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+24.7	61.7%	2,804
Clarke County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+20.3	59.5%	2,708
Worth County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+7.4	53.0%	2,598
Monroe County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+27.5	63.1%	2,519
Adair County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+22.9	60.8%	2,468
Davis County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+30.9	64.8%	2,399
Fremont County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+23.0	60.8%	2,299
Decatur County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+24.2	61.4%	2,264
Ida County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+34.1	66.4%	2,212
Van Buren County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+33.3	66.0%	2,200
Pocahontas County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+31.2	64.9%	2,170
Audubon County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+16.6	57.6%	1,968
Osceola County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+44.5	71.6%	1,955
Wayne County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+33.9	66.3%	1,895
Taylor County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+32.4	65.5%	1,869
Ringgold County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+27.4	63.0%	1,630
Adams County	RZach Lahn, RZach Lahn	R	R+23.3	61.0%	1,294

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2

   National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -7.8

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   1.20 × -9.3 = -11.2

   Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Raw data

   2026 early vote

   None reported

   No verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.

7. Model input

   History block

   R−D 11.1

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+30.4 w5, 2022 open seat R+47.1 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.

8. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 0.9

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

9. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 4.6

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. No verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin.

10. Model input

    National environment

    R−D -2.6

    History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.

11. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 1.4

    History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.

12. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 13.3

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

13. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -5.1

    New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.56), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

14. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

15. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D -4.2

    County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.

16. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 4.7

    No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.

17. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 4.7

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.

18. Model input

    Polling

    R−D -7.2

    Individual polls -8.8 (80%) and the Wikipedia average -8.5 (20%). Named support R−D -9. Allocated support R−D -8.7. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 53.4% Republican and 46.6% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 56.7 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 1. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: 1.50. Public pollsters: 6. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.

19. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 reaches the result

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none.

20. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. At least three public polls from different pollsters, and none is an outlier.

21. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

22. Model input

    Prediction market

    87% win probability

    Rob Sand 86.8% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 13.3 from Kalshi 12.0% Republican; Polymarket 14.5% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is -12.0. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 0.8, which leaves -6.9. It enters once, at 2.5%. The polling term is not nudged. The market and the polls differ by more than 15 points of win probability, so the weight is half of 5% and the interval is wider.

23. Model input

    State bend

    R−D -2.8

    IA is adjusted 2.8 points toward the Democrats after the blend, from 0.6 to -2.2. Florida takes less of a Democratic national swing. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Arizona are not left pinned to a red presidential lean when the race is close. A seat already 15 points the other way, or a House seat whose own lines are 6 points that way and the race is already 4 points that way, only moves 1.2.

24. Model input

    Weights

    polling 21.0% · history 7.7% · candidate 7.6% · electorate 4.8% · stateEnv 4.8% · national 4.8% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 2.0% · issues 2.0% · stateLean 15.3% · trump 11.5% · favorability 10.5% · market 2.5%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.

25. County-sum margin

    -2.2

    This is the sum of the reporting units after each unit moved off its own history. It is not the poll average.

26. 80% interval

    -12.8 to 8.4

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

27. 95% interval

    -18.5 to 14.2

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.