Georgia
Governor
Open seat
Forecast as of October 7, 2026. These vote totals equal the sum of the counties below. Not a poll average.
DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms
Democratic
RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson
Republican
Other
Margin
D+0.3
Win probability
52.3%
80% interval
D+6.3 to R+5.8
95% interval
D+9.6 to R+9.0
Market
53%
Rick Jackson · win probability, not a vote shareRaw data Checking polls.
50,000 draws. The 80% interval is the 10th to the 90th percentile. The 95% interval is the 2.5th to the 97.5th. The thin mark is the 95% interval. The thick mark is the 80%. The hairline is zero. 3,939,328 ballots, equal to the table.
Counties
Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.
| Party | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulton County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+47.0 | 73.0% | 411,003 |
| Gwinnett County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+17.9 | 58.4% | 323,036 |
| Cobb County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+15.6 | 57.3% | 308,206 |
| DeKalb County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+67.4 | 83.2% | 281,053 |
| Cherokee County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+38.7 | 68.8% | 124,614 |
| Chatham County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+20.2 | 59.6% | 108,356 |
| Forsyth County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+33.4 | 66.2% | 106,160 |
| Henry County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+28.2 | 63.6% | 99,084 |
| Clayton County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+72.8 | 85.9% | 85,795 |
| Hall County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+42.8 | 70.9% | 78,304 |
| Paulding County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+24.5 | 61.7% | 73,100 |
| Columbia County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+25.7 | 62.3% | 65,977 |
| Coweta County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+33.5 | 66.2% | 65,974 |
| Richmond County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+38.1 | 68.5% | 64,178 |
| Houston County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+10.6 | 54.8% | 62,593 |
| Muscogee County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+25.0 | 62.0% | 61,808 |
| Fayette County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+3.6 | 51.3% | 57,309 |
| Douglas County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+30.8 | 64.9% | 54,306 |
| Bibb County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+24.5 | 61.7% | 53,123 |
| Carroll County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+39.1 | 69.0% | 46,452 |
| Newton County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+15.7 | 57.3% | 45,345 |
| Walton County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+46.0 | 72.5% | 44,826 |
| Bartow County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+49.6 | 74.3% | 44,190 |
| Clarke County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+41.0 | 70.0% | 40,612 |
| Lowndes County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+15.4 | 57.2% | 36,701 |
| Jackson County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+55.3 | 77.1% | 36,277 |
| Rockdale County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+46.6 | 72.8% | 34,678 |
| Floyd County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+40.3 | 69.6% | 34,353 |
| Barrow County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+40.4 | 69.7% | 33,736 |
| Glynn County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+24.5 | 61.7% | 33,720 |
| Whitfield County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+42.8 | 70.9% | 30,583 |
| Effingham County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+48.5 | 73.8% | 27,831 |
| Catoosa County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+54.7 | 76.8% | 26,905 |
| Dougherty County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+42.9 | 70.9% | 25,993 |
| Spalding County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+16.3 | 57.6% | 25,369 |
| Bulloch County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+26.4 | 62.7% | 25,077 |
| Walker County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+58.3 | 78.6% | 24,639 |
| Troup County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+21.9 | 60.5% | 24,038 |
| Gordon County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+61.8 | 80.4% | 21,199 |
| Oconee County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+35.1 | 67.1% | 20,954 |
| Camden County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+32.8 | 65.9% | 20,267 |
| Bryan County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+35.6 | 67.3% | 18,929 |
| Laurens County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+30.7 | 64.8% | 17,932 |
| Habersham County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+63.7 | 81.3% | 17,876 |
| Liberty County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+21.6 | 60.3% | 17,683 |
| Harris County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+44.8 | 71.9% | 17,164 |
| Thomas County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+21.9 | 60.4% | 16,955 |
| Pickens County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+65.0 | 82.0% | 16,060 |
| Dawson County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+65.1 | 82.0% | 15,021 |
| Polk County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+58.2 | 78.6% | 14,721 |
| Baldwin County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+0.3 | 49.7% | 14,456 |
| Gilmer County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+62.0 | 80.5% | 14,192 |
| Union County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+61.8 | 80.4% | 13,730 |
| Lumpkin County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+59.3 | 79.1% | 13,674 |
| Monroe County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+44.3 | 71.6% | 13,595 |
| Lee County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+43.1 | 71.0% | 13,578 |
| Murray County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+69.8 | 84.4% | 13,413 |
| Tift County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+34.7 | 66.8% | 13,045 |
| White County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+67.0 | 83.0% | 12,920 |
| Madison County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+53.6 | 76.3% | 12,891 |
| Colquitt County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+48.7 | 73.9% | 12,756 |
| Haralson County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+72.9 | 85.9% | 12,566 |
| Fannin County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+63.3 | 81.1% | 12,360 |
| Jones County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+35.6 | 67.3% | 12,357 |
| Coffee County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+42.4 | 70.7% | 12,067 |
| Ware County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+41.4 | 70.2% | 11,052 |
| Hart County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+52.7 | 75.8% | 11,005 |
| Upson County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+36.5 | 67.7% | 10,491 |
| Wayne County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+58.1 | 78.5% | 10,414 |
| Peach County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+3.7 | 51.3% | 10,331 |
| Morgan County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+43.4 | 71.2% | 10,122 |
| Stephens County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+60.7 | 79.8% | 10,058 |
| Butts County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+43.0 | 71.0% | 9,997 |
| Putnam County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+40.8 | 69.9% | 9,888 |
| Greene County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+27.4 | 63.2% | 9,818 |
| Pike County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+71.2 | 85.1% | 9,636 |
| Franklin County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+70.9 | 84.9% | 9,322 |
| Sumter County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+4.1 | 51.5% | 9,252 |
| Meriwether County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+21.8 | 60.4% | 9,051 |
| Burke County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+4.0 | 51.5% | 6,801 |
| Decatur County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+19.6 | 59.3% | 6,429 |
| Toombs County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+46.3 | 72.6% | 6,075 |
| Grady County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+33.2 | 66.1% | 5,967 |
| Chattooga County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+59.1 | 79.0% | 5,960 |
| McDuffie County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+19.9 | 59.4% | 5,866 |
| Banks County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+74.4 | 86.7% | 5,856 |
| Washington County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+1.7 | 50.3% | 5,832 |
| Rabun County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+53.6 | 76.3% | 5,802 |
| Lamar County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+40.1 | 69.6% | 5,797 |
| Mitchell County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+11.9 | 55.5% | 5,453 |
| Pierce County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+73.4 | 86.2% | 5,434 |
| Emanuel County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+39.0 | 69.0% | 5,355 |
| Elbert County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+38.3 | 68.6% | 5,339 |
| Worth County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+46.4 | 72.7% | 5,182 |
| Jasper County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+52.0 | 75.5% | 5,076 |
| Towns County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+58.5 | 78.7% | 4,920 |
| Oglethorpe County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+38.0 | 68.5% | 4,912 |
| Tattnall County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+49.1 | 74.0% | 4,739 |
| Brantley County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+78.4 | 88.7% | 4,732 |
| Dodge County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+45.2 | 72.1% | 4,649 |
| Appling County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+57.5 | 78.3% | 4,640 |
| Jefferson County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+3.9 | 51.5% | 4,584 |
| Dade County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+62.3 | 80.6% | 4,565 |
| Crisp County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+21.8 | 60.4% | 4,518 |
| Berrien County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+65.8 | 82.4% | 4,491 |
| McIntosh County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+22.2 | 60.6% | 4,125 |
| Cook County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+41.2 | 70.1% | 4,096 |
| Brooks County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+21.7 | 60.3% | 4,014 |
| Long County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+25.5 | 62.2% | 3,928 |
| Screven County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+20.0 | 59.5% | 3,853 |
| Ben Hill County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+26.8 | 62.9% | 3,620 |
| Crawford County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+44.8 | 71.9% | 3,529 |
| Heard County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+66.6 | 82.8% | 3,457 |
| Bleckley County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+51.7 | 75.3% | 3,365 |
| Jeff Davis County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+63.5 | 81.2% | 3,269 |
| Wilkes County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+13.7 | 56.3% | 3,132 |
| Wilkinson County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+12.9 | 55.9% | 3,015 |
| Early County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+7.8 | 53.4% | 2,998 |
| Macon County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+23.3 | 61.1% | 2,879 |
| Lincoln County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+39.3 | 69.1% | 2,745 |
| Twiggs County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+9.1 | 54.0% | 2,738 |
| Bacon County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+69.1 | 84.0% | 2,694 |
| Terrell County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+8.6 | 53.8% | 2,667 |
| Charlton County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+50.7 | 74.8% | 2,576 |
| Dooly County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+3.7 | 51.4% | 2,566 |
| Candler County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+42.7 | 70.8% | 2,543 |
| Irwin County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+49.4 | 74.2% | 2,417 |
| Pulaski County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+36.1 | 67.5% | 2,414 |
| Evans County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+37.4 | 68.2% | 2,363 |
| Hancock County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+43.2 | 71.1% | 2,360 |
| Telfair County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+33.8 | 66.4% | 2,346 |
| Seminole County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+34.6 | 66.8% | 2,231 |
| Johnson County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+41.9 | 70.4% | 2,218 |
| Taylor County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+25.6 | 62.3% | 2,217 |
| Montgomery County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+48.7 | 73.8% | 2,212 |
| Turner County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+23.7 | 61.3% | 2,134 |
| Lanier County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+41.3 | 70.1% | 2,080 |
| Talbot County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+17.4 | 58.2% | 2,076 |
| Marion County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+25.5 | 62.3% | 2,016 |
| Jenkins County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+26.0 | 62.5% | 1,898 |
| Wilcox County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+44.3 | 71.7% | 1,863 |
| Randolph County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+11.5 | 55.3% | 1,837 |
| Treutlen County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+38.6 | 68.8% | 1,737 |
| Atkinson County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+48.5 | 73.7% | 1,702 |
| Clinch County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+47.6 | 73.3% | 1,619 |
| Warren County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+8.7 | 53.8% | 1,592 |
| Miller County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+47.5 | 73.2% | 1,517 |
| Schley County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+58.3 | 78.6% | 1,351 |
| Wheeler County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+40.1 | 69.5% | 1,267 |
| Calhoun County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+16.3 | 57.6% | 1,263 |
| Stewart County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+19.7 | 59.3% | 1,246 |
| Chattahoochee County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+11.4 | 55.2% | 1,040 |
| Glascock County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+79.5 | 89.2% | 930 |
| Clay County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+11.4 | 55.2% | 886 |
| Baker County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+15.7 | 57.3% | 822 |
| Echols County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+76.5 | 87.8% | 801 |
| Webster County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+15.3 | 57.1% | 744 |
| Quitman County | RRick Jackson, RRick Jackson | R | R+11.1 | 55.1% | 701 |
| Taliaferro County | DKeisha Lance Bottoms, DKeisha Lance Bottoms | D | D+20.4 | 59.7% | 543 |
Model
- Raw data
2024 presidential baseline
National R−D 1.5County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.
- Raw data
Generic ballot
D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.
- Raw data
Party identification
Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.
- Model input
National block
R−D -7.860% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.
- Model input
Swing transmitted
1.03 × -9.3 = -9.6Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.
- Raw data
2026 early vote
1,100 reported cast1,100 ballots reported cast as of 10/7/2026: 1,100 mail returned and 0 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.
- Model input
History block
R−D 3.4Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+59.8 w5, 2022 open seat R+64.5 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.
- Model input
Electorate block
R−D -2.4History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.
- Model input
Turnout block
R−D 0.8Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. 1,100 ballots reported cast as of 10/7/2026: 1,100 mail returned and 0 in person. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Mail is a count of returns, not the 2024 mail share.
- Model input
National environment
R−D -3.6History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.
- Model input
State environment
R−D -0.1History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.
- Model input
State partisan lean
R−D 2.2The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.
- Model input
Trump popularity
R−D -8.5New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.93), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.
- Model input
Candidate favorability
R−D 0.0Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.
- Model input
Demographics
R−D -5.3County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.
- Model input
Finance
R−D 2.7No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.
- Model input
Issues
R−D 2.7No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.
- Model input
Polling
R−D 1.2Individual polls 1.6 (80%) and the Wikipedia average 0.7 (20%). Named support R−D 1.3. Allocated support R−D 1.4. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 50.6% Republican and 49.4% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 51.1 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 1. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: -0.18. Public pollsters: 5. Outliers: 1. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.
- Model input
Candidate
R+0.00 reaches the resultOpen seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none.
- Model input
Halfway floor
Not appliedNot applied. The state's 2024 presidential margin was inside 10 points, or there is no polling term.
- Model input
Pooling
35% of the way from each history block toward the polling termOtherwise the shrink is 35%.
- Model input
Prediction market
53% win probabilityRick Jackson 52.5% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 52.5 from Kalshi 53.5% Republican; Polymarket 51.5% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 0.9. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin -0.3, which leaves 0.4. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.
- Model input
State bend
NoneNot applied.
- Model input
Weights
polling 20.4% · history 7.5% · candidate 7.4% · electorate 4.7% · stateEnv 4.7% · national 4.7% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 1.9% · issues 1.9% · stateLean 14.9% · trump 11.2% · favorability 10.3% · market 5.0%History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.
County-sum margin
-0.3This is the sum of the reporting units after each unit moved off its own history. It is not the poll average.
80% interval
-6.3 to 5.810th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.
95% interval
-9.6 to 9.02.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.
Wikipedia, 2026 United States gubernatorial elections (general-election infobox) www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-ag-chris-carr-enters-2026-race-for-governor-kicking-off-race/UUBZXWHT25GHPNBUVO6RBEKPSA/