Governor

Why this race matters

This is the 15th closest governor race in the forecast, 9.1 points, out of 36.

36 governor races are in the forecast (19 Democratic leads, 17 Republican leads). A governor's race does not decide control of Congress.

No incumbent is on the ballot.

No earlier forecast of this race is archived, so there is no previous projection, date, or reason to show.

History block in the model: R+11.6. That is the office blend, not one past election.

Last same-office result in the candidate file: 2022 R+19.4. A special on the 2026 ballot is not automatically that contest.

Polling block: R+8.8. The published result is still the county sum.

Counties

Every reporting unit in the race. Tap a county to open its precincts. The projected votes above are this table added up. They are not ballots cast.

Counties

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Projected ↓
Miami-Dade County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+1.3	50.2%	841,529
Broward County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+23.5	61.3%	672,648
Palm Beach County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+5.9	52.5%	573,559
Hillsborough County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+0.3	49.7%	516,859
Orange County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+16.8	57.9%	467,026
Pinellas County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+2.3	50.7%	397,699
Duval County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+0.9	50.0%	362,479
Lee County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+27.4	63.2%	301,909
Brevard County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+19.8	59.4%	278,011
Polk County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+19.3	59.2%	268,376
Pasco County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+22.9	61.0%	244,948
Volusia County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+18.9	59.0%	238,820
Sarasota County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+14.8	56.9%	213,716
Seminole County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+2.6	50.8%	195,151
Manatee County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+21.2	60.2%	176,026
Lake County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+24.2	61.6%	174,430
Collier County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+33.3	66.2%	166,417
Marion County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+29.8	64.4%	164,678
St. Johns County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+31.0	65.1%	151,872
St. Lucie County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+6.7	52.9%	142,395
Osceola County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+4.6	51.8%	132,892
Escambia County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+19.7	59.4%	125,183
Leon County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+23.6	61.4%	120,604
Alachua County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+23.0	61.1%	105,026
Clay County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+40.1	69.6%	97,534
Charlotte County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+32.1	65.6%	95,125
Okaloosa County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+43.9	71.5%	87,402
Santa Rosa County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+51.0	75.0%	86,472
Hernando County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+32.9	66.0%	85,136
Sumter County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+38.7	68.9%	80,929
Indian River County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+26.3	62.7%	76,158
Martin County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+29.3	64.2%	75,601
Citrus County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+42.5	70.8%	75,556
Bay County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+46.1	72.6%	54,523
Flagler County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+23.8	61.4%	44,591
Nassau County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+45.0	72.0%	36,593
Highlands County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+37.8	68.4%	28,944
Walton County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+54.7	76.9%	27,660
Monroe County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+12.3	55.7%	27,275
Putnam County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+42.3	70.7%	20,227
Columbia County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+46.9	73.0%	18,732
Levy County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+46.9	73.0%	13,594
Jackson County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+41.8	70.4%	12,323
Suwannee County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+57.6	78.3%	12,207
Gadsden County	DDavid Jolly, DDavid Jolly	D	D+34.3	66.7%	12,194
Wakulla County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+40.2	69.6%	11,072
Okeechobee County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+48.8	73.9%	8,955
Baker County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+69.3	84.2%	8,352
Bradford County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+53.0	76.0%	7,769
Hendry County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+33.2	66.1%	7,506
Washington County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+61.3	80.2%	7,018
DeSoto County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+38.9	69.0%	6,964
Gilchrist County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+64.8	81.9%	5,959
Taylor County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+55.7	77.4%	5,574
Jefferson County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+13.3	56.2%	5,231
Madison County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+23.1	61.1%	5,105
Holmes County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+76.6	87.8%	5,083
Gulf County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+50.5	74.8%	4,850
Dixie County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+66.3	82.7%	4,544
Hardee County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+51.7	75.4%	4,541
Franklin County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+38.3	68.7%	3,769
Calhoun County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+62.9	81.0%	3,584
Union County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+64.4	81.8%	3,475
Hamilton County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+35.2	67.2%	3,197
Glades County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+49.0	74.0%	2,944
Lafayette County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+71.5	85.3%	2,094
Liberty County	RByron Donalds, RByron Donalds	R	R+62.0	80.5%	1,946

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 51.7 R 43.1 R−D -8.6

   National Wikipedia aggregate, 2026-10-30. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, are mixed with the national swing for a race that does not have its own poll: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national swing and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -8.1

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   1.30 × -9.5 = -12.4

   This race has its own poll. The swing in the history blocks, before they shrink toward that poll, is the national block minus the 2024 presidential margin. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Model input

   History block

   R−D 11.5

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. If that office was on the ballot in 2022, that year takes the 40 and 2018 takes the 5. Otherwise 2018 keeps the 40. A missing year is filled with the 2020 result for the same office. Another office is not used. The year lines are Miami-Dade County, the largest county, not the state total: 2018 D+20.9 w5, 2022 open seat R+11.4 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. The state number above is the vote-weighted sum. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged.

7. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D 5.6

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. That spread is ballot size, not the demographic file. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

8. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 9.6

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used.

9. Model input

   National environment

   R−D 2.2

   History plus the full transmitted swing. With no poll of this race, that swing is the state generic ballot mixed with the national block, or the national block alone.

10. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 6.6

    History plus 45 percent of the transmitted swing. This is a Senate and governor weight.

11. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 13.1

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

12. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -5.1

    New York Times approval average, October 29, 2026: 37.4% approve, 60.2% disapprove. Net approval -22.800000000000004. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.56), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

13. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

14. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D 0.2

    One statewide block only. A county that is more college-educated or more nonwhite than the other counties in this race takes more of the transmitted swing, and a more rural county takes less. That changes this block, at its weight. It does not choose which counties move when the margin is spread back out. That spread uses ballot size. The shares are the 2012–2016 American Community Survey and the 2010 Census, from the 2018 county election-context file. Alaska is not in that file.

15. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 10.2

    No sourced spending edge. The block is history, or history shrunk toward the poll. It is not a finance model.

16. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 10.2

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance. It is not a separate issue model.

17. Model input

    Polling

    R−D 7.9

    Individual polls 5.5 (80%) and the Wikipedia average 5 (20%). Named support R−D 5.1. Allocated support R−D 5.4. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 53.3% Republican and 46.7% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 56.6 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A minor-party line is not published as its own candidate. Banned individual rows excluded: 6. One same-office miss, 2022: the poll was R−D 12.2 and the result was 19.4, miss 7.2. A single cycle is noisy, so 40 percent is kept. Capped at 2.5 points. It is added to the polling term only. It is not a separate weight. Applied to the polling term: 2.50. Public pollsters: 10. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0. It is not in the average. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half. Pollster quality nudges that weight by only a few percent. The same rule is used on a House poll. House district polls are likely-voter polls only.

18. Model input

    Generic ballot weight

    R−D -1.6

    The generic ballot stays in the blend next to the independent polls. It is not shrunk toward the poll and an internal does not replace it. Weight 9.5%.

19. Model input

    Top line

    Not a House term

    Senate and governor are the top line. They are not moved by themselves.

20. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 added whole

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none. These points are not watered down to the candidate weight. The candidate weight is a separate slice of the baseline. On a Senate or governor race with three public polls and no outlier, the points stop at that poll instead of moving past it.

21. Model input

    Scandal

    None

    No candidate on this ballot is scandal-defined.

22. Model input

    Endorsements

    R−D +0.20

    Trump endorsed Byron Donalds. The presidential lean here is R−D 13.1, so the endorsement helps 0.20. Ballotpedia, Endorsements by Donald Trump, 2026 tables, page updated August 5, 2026. A primary endorsement is counted when that person is the nominee. A lost primary, a candidate not on the ballot, and a withdrawn endorsement are not.

23. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Not applied

    Not applied. At least three public polls from different pollsters are not outliers. An outlier elsewhere in the file is already cut in half and does not put the floor back on.

24. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

25. Model input

    Prediction market

    70% win probability

    Byron Donalds 69.8% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 69.8 from Kalshi 69.5% Republican; Polymarket 70.0% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is 6.9. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 5.7, which leaves 6.4. It enters once, at 5.0%. The polling term is not nudged. Books under $10,000 and primary markets are ignored.

26. Model input

    State bend

    R−D +3.6

    FL is adjusted 3.6 points toward the Republicans after the blend, from 5.7 to 9.3. Florida takes less of a Democratic national swing. Iowa, Wisconsin, and Arizona are not left pinned to a red presidential lean when the race is close. A seat already 15 points the other way, or a House seat whose own lines are 6 points that way and the race is already 4 points that way, only moves 1.2.

27. Model input

    State environment adjustment

    National only

    This state already has its own environment adjustment after the blend. It is not given a second one.

28. Model input

    Early vote

    D+0.7

    Reported party on ballots already cast is D 38.9 R 40.2, a Republican lead of 1.3 points of every ballot. At 5 days before the 2022 election that lead was -6.0. The difference is D+4.7. Fifteen percent is kept, capped at 1, so D+0.7. This is registration on the ballots returned so far, compared with the same point in the last midterm, not a count of how anyone voted and not another model's estimate of the electorate.

29. Model input

    Other ratings

    R−D 3.5 at 3.0%

    Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections, and the other columns on the same published tables (Decision Desk HQ, RealClearPolitics, Split Ticket, FiftyPlusOne, The Economist, Fox News, Silver Bulletin). 7 ratings, average R−D 3.5. A toss-up is 0, tilt 1.5, lean 3.5, likely 7, safe or solid 12. If this race is already further to that side, the rating does not pull it back. Mixed in after everything else, at 3.0 percent. It does not replace the poll. A seat nobody has rated is left alone.

30. Model input

    Weights

    polling 20.7% · generic 8.8% · stateLean 12.5% · trump 9.4% · favorability 8.7% · history 6.4% · candidate 6.3% · electorate 3.9% · stateEnv 3.9% · national 3.9% · turnout 2.3% · demographics 2.3% · finance 1.6% · issues 1.7% · market 4.9% · ratings 3.0%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone. Published ratings, when a race has them, are mixed in after that. They are not taken out of polling alone.

31. County-sum margin

    9.1

    This is the sum of the county projections. Counties are not moved afterward to force this total.

32. Minor parties

    None

    Other is the 2024 presidential vote that was neither Democratic nor Republican, weighted by these counties. It is not the last forecast. A missing opponent is not Other. No Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or other minor line was on this ballot.

33. 80% interval

    3.0 to 15.2

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

34. 95% interval

    -0.3 to 18.3

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.