Governor

Ranked choice

Alaska ranked-choice voting. The first round is the reporting-unit sum.

Transfer rates are a model input: about 72% stay with a remaining candidate of the same party, about 10% cross, and the rest exhaust. Not a ranked-choice poll. Applied to the first round.

Final-round leader: Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins. The headline vote share stays the first round, which is the county sum.

Boroughs and census areas

Every reporting unit in the race. Sort any column. The votes above are this table added up.

Boroughs and census areas

County	Leader	Party	Margin	Vote share	Votes ↓
Anchorage Municipality	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+4.2	45.9%	111,505
Matanuska-Susitna Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+42.1	26.9%	46,452
Fairbanks North Star Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+18.9	38.5%	36,653
Kenai Peninsula Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+31.5	32.2%	28,003
Juneau City and Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+14.3	55.1%	14,244
Ketchikan Gateway Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+19.8	38.1%	5,455
Kodiak Island Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+18.4	38.8%	5,257
Valdez-Cordova Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+25.0	35.5%	3,873
Bethel Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+4.7	50.3%	3,582
Sitka City and Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+2.6	49.3%	3,243
Prince of Wales-Hyder Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+8.5	43.7%	2,929
Southeast Fairbanks Census Area	RBernadette Wilson, RBernadette Wilson	R	R+56.1	25.3%	2,916
Nome Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+1.7	48.8%	2,343
Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+11.9	53.9%	1,994
Haines Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+0.1	47.9%	1,505
North Slope Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+16.0	39.9%	1,452
Petersburg Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+19.9	38.0%	1,425
Kusilvak Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+6.6	51.3%	1,317
Hoonah-Angoon Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+11.4	53.7%	1,271
Dillingham Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+9.8	43.1%	1,263
Northwest Arctic Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+8.4	43.8%	1,259
Denali Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+21.0	37.5%	1,083
Wrangell City and Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+30.8	32.5%	953
Skagway Municipality	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+28.2	62.1%	868
Aleutians West Census Area	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+4.7	45.6%	815
Yakutat City and Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	D+9.9	52.9%	395
Lake and Peninsula Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+14.6	40.7%	371
Aleutians East Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+33.4	31.2%	362
Bristol Bay Borough	DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, DJonathan Kreiss-Tomkins	D	R+26.0	35.0%	346

Model

1. Raw data

   2024 presidential baseline

   National R−D 1.5

   County presidential file. Not the 2026 result.

2. Raw data

   Generic ballot

   D 50.8 R 42.6 R−D -8.2

   National Wikipedia aggregate, October 5, 2026. State generic ballots, where a public poll exists, replace a uniform national swing: ME, MI, NH, NY, OH. A state with no generic-ballot poll keeps the national number and is not assigned a neighbor's.

3. Raw data

   Party identification

   Pew D+5 and Gallup D+10, blend R−D -7.3

   Pew NPORS 2026, identifiers plus leaners: Republican 43, Democratic 48. Gallup party identification plus leaners, first two quarters of 2026: Democratic 49, Republican 39. Pew is 55% of this blend and Gallup is 45%.

4. Model input

   National block

   R−D -7.8

   60% generic ballot and 40% party identification. The swing versus the 2024 presidential margin is what gets transmitted.

5. Model input

   Swing transmitted

   1.30 × -9.3 = -12.1

   Only the share of the national swing this state took in the last midterm is transmitted. Elasticity is shrunk halfway toward 1.

6. Raw data

   2026 early vote

   None reported

   No verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin. Applications and ballots that were only sent are not in this count. A day-1 pace gap is not a statewide margin.

7. Model input

   History block

   R−D 15.7

   Weights 2018 5 / 2024 35 / 2020 20 / 2022 16. 2020 and 2022 results for this office are included in every state that had those races, including blowouts. A 2022 election is weighted ahead of 2018. If that office was not on the ballot, the 2020 result for the same office fills the year. Another office is not used. 2018 R+7.0 w5, 2022 open seat R+42.9 w16. No incumbent is on the ballot, so the 2022 result keeps 40 percent of its usual weight and 40 percent of its gap versus the 2024 presidential margin. The prior nominee's margin is not the open-seat baseline. This is the last result for the office, not the presidential margin. A 2024 county map is not copied forward unchanged. A 2018 model error is not used.

8. Model input

   Electorate block

   R−D -0.4

   History reweighted by usual midterm turnout, plus half of the transmitted swing. Rural and presidential-only counties still move farther when the result is spread back to counties. Published ballots are the 2018 midterm canvass for this office, split by these modeled shares. They are not the 2024 presidential vote. The 2026 early-vote count is not inside this margin.

9. Model input

   Turnout block

   R−D 3.6

   Each county is weighted by its 2018 ballots divided by its 2024 presidential ballots. Small counties shrink halfway toward the state median. 2020 mail shares are not used. No verified 2026 returned-mail or in-person ballots for this state in the October 7 file. Nothing was imputed. Day-1 early vote is a signal, not a statewide margin.

10. Model input

    National environment

    R−D -4.3

    History plus the full transmitted swing from the 60/40 national block.

11. Model input

    State environment

    R−D 0.0

    History plus 45% of the transmitted swing.

12. Model input

    State partisan lean

    R−D 13.1

    The 2024 presidential margin of this state, or of this district for a House race. It is heavier than the old state-environment block and is not shrunk toward the polling term.

13. Model input

    Trump popularity

    R−D -5.2

    New York Times approval average, October 7, 2026: 37% approve, 60% disapprove. Net approval -23. That is not a vote share. Four-tenths of the net is a margin, then scaled by this place's partisan lean (factor 0.56), so an unpopular president costs more in a Democratic state.

14. Model input

    Candidate favorability

    R−D 0.0

    Open seat or no incumbent. Favorability is zero.

15. Model input

    Demographics

    R−D -4.3

    County college, rural, and nonwhite shares from the 2018 election-context file change how much of the swing a county takes. No separate microdata file.

16. Model input

    Finance

    R−D 3.6

    No sourced spending edge, so the block starts on history. With a poll, it shrinks toward the polling term with the other non-poll blocks.

17. Model input

    Issues

    R−D 3.6

    No sourced issue score. Same treatment as finance.

18. Model input

    Polling

    R−D -19.0

    Individual polls only, -19. No Wikipedia average row. Named support R−D -20. Allocated support R−D -19. Named support does not move. Only the undecided line is split, 53.4% Republican and 46.6% Democratic. That is the 2024 two-party Republican share 56.8 moved halfway to 50 and capped at 60/40. A named third-party vote stays third-party. Banned individual rows excluded: 0. State miss shrunk 40% toward zero: 0.00. Public pollsters: 2. Outliers: 0. Recency half-life 16 days. Sample weight n/(n+350). A registered-voter poll is 0.90. An internal poll, or a poll sponsored by one party, is weighted 0.20, and only when a public poll is also in the race. An internal-only file is dropped. A poll that names both parties is not an internal. A poll more than 8 points from the median of the others is cut in half.

19. Model input

    Candidate

    R+0.00 reaches the result

    Open seat. No incumbency term. A negative popularity score is not added on top of the office baseline. No overperformance. An open seat, a scandal, or a missing incumbent gets none.

20. Model input

    Halfway floor

    Applied

    The published leader would have been the party that lost the state by 13.1. The office baseline is 15.7. A thin poll does not get to cross that. The poll itself was not flipped.

21. Model input

    Pooling

    35% of the way from each history block toward the polling term

    Otherwise the shrink is 35%.

22. Model input

    Prediction market

    83% win probability

    Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins 83.5% is a win probability, not a vote share. Republican win probability 16.5 from Kalshi 11.9% Republican; Polymarket 21.1% Republican. A price of 50 is a tie. Each point above 50 is 0.35 margin points, capped at 12, so the raw margin is -11.7. That margin is shrunk 40% toward the pre-market margin 15.7, which leaves -0.7. It enters once, at 2.5%. The polling term is not nudged. The market and the polls differ by more than 15 points of win probability, so the weight is half of 5% and the interval is wider.

23. Model input

    State bend

    None

    Not applied.

24. Model input

    Weights

    polling 21.0% · history 7.7% · candidate 7.6% · electorate 4.8% · stateEnv 4.8% · national 4.8% · turnout 2.8% · demographics 2.8% · finance 2.0% · issues 2.0% · stateLean 15.3% · trump 11.5% · favorability 10.5% · market 2.5%

    History is lighter. State partisan lean, Trump popularity, and candidate favorability are their own terms. A market, when it qualifies, scales every other weight and is not taken out of polling alone.

25. County-sum margin

    -1.3

    Ranked choice. This margin is the final round, Republican minus Democratic, not the first-round party total. Borough rows are the first round.

26. 80% interval

    -14.3 to 11.7

    10th to 90th percentile of 50,000 draws. Poll, national, state, turnout, and candidate error.

27. 95% interval

    -21.1 to 18.7

    2.5th to 97.5th percentile. Senate and governor state errors in the same state share a correlation of 0.30. The band shown is the marginal interval.